When and How Often Does the Journal Conduct the Survey?

The survey’s frequency has changed over time. As of April 2021, we conduct it quarterly—in January, April, July and October—although we conduct brief surveys in between the quarterly installments as news warrants. From the mid-1980s through 2002, we conducted the survey twice a year. From 2003 through March 2021, its frequency was monthly.

What Kinds of Questions Does the Survey Ask?

We ask economists to forecast a range of economic indicators: quarterly and annual real GDP, the consumer-price index, unemployment rate, monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, the midpoint of the range for the Federal Funds Rate, closing yield on 10-year Treasury Notes, and others. Some questions, such as GDP, have been asked throughout the life of the survey. Others, such as the exchange rate for Euros to U.S. dollars, were asked only for a time.

Each month, the survey includes questions related to current events. We also ask economists for comments for publication. Not every economist answers every question.

Who Are the Economists in the Survey?

The panel includes more than 70 academic, business and financial economists, and the makeup of the panel has evolved over time. The name and affiliation of each economist, as well as their latest indicator forecasts, is included in the spreadsheet available with each survey.

In the annual lists below, click the “Data” link to download that month’s indicator forecasts in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

How Can I Get More Information?

We’re glad to hear from readers who have questions about The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey or from economists who produce forecasts and are interested in being part of our panel. Please contact us at [email protected].

2023 Stories and Data

• April: Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation | Data
• January: Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year Despite Easing Inflation | Data

2022 Stories and Data

• October: Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year | Data
• July: As Fed Tightens, Economists Worry It Will Go Too Far | Data
• June: Recession Probability Soars as Inflation Worsens | Data
• April: Recession Risk Rising, Economists Say | Data
• January: Omicron, Inflation Drive Down U.S. Growth Outlook | Data

2021 Stories and Data

• October: Bottlenecks, Elevated Inflation Will Persist Well Into Next Year, Survey Finds | Data
• July: Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast | Data
• April: With Economy Poised for Best Growth Since 1983, Inflation Lurks | Data
• March: Third Covid-19 Stimulus Package Could Jolt U.S. Growth, Revive Inflation in 2021 | Data
• February: Forecasters Lift Expectations for 2021 Economic Growth | Data
• January: WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021 | Data

2020 Stories and Data

• December: U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows | Data
• November: WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election | Data
• October: WSJ Survey: 43% of Economists Don’t See U.S. Gaining Back Lost Jobs Until 2023 | Data
• September: WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering Faster Than Economists Expected | Data
• August: WSJ Survey: Benefits of Extra Unemployment Aid Outweigh Work Disincentive | Data
• July: WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response | Data
• June: WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter | Data
• May: WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause 17% Unemployment in June | Data
• April: WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment | Data
• March: WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter | Data 
• February: WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth | Data
• January: WSJ Survey: U.S., China Agreement Will Boost Growth | Data

2019 Stories and Data

• December: U.S. Expansion Expected to Continue Through 2020 – WSJ Survey | Data
• November: WSJ Survey: Economists Split on Causes of Hiring Slowdown | Data
• October: WSJ Survey: Majority of Economists Say Manufacturing Sector in Recession | Data
• September: Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth in 2019 | Data
• August: Economists See Greater Chance of September Rate Cut, WSJ Survey Says | Data
• July: President Trump’s Criticism of the Fed Hasn’t Shifted Perception of Its Independence, Economists Say | Data
• June: WSJ Survey: Most Economists Say Fed’s Next Move Is Rate Cut | Data
• May: Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year, WSJ Survey Says | Data
• April: Raising Minimum Wage Would Cost Jobs, Say Economists in WSJ Survey | Data
• March: WSJ Survey: Economists Cut Forecasts for Jobs and Economic Growth in Early 2019 | Data
• February: Most Economists Say Fresh Government Shutdown Would Hurt U.S. Growth | Data
• January: Economists See U.S. Recession Risk Rising | Data

2018 Stories and Data

• December: Economists See U.S.-China Trade War as Biggest Threat in 2019 | Data
• November: Economists Split on Whether Outcome of Midterms Will Increase or Decrease Uncertainty | Data
• October: WSJ Survey: Economists Increasingly Confident of Fed Rate Hikes | Data
• September: Most Economists See Tariff Effects on U.S. Economy as Limited | Data
• August: Growth Seen Hitting 3% in 2018, but Risks to Outlook Mount After This Year | Data
• July: Economists Think U.S. Unemployment Is Headed to a 50-Year Low | Economists in New Survey See Federal Reserve on Autopilot | Data
• June: WSJ Survey: Fed Will Move to Rein In the Economy | Data
• May: Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020 | Data
• April: Powerful Forces Seen Restraining U.S. Pay Growth | Data
• March: Economists Worry a Trade War Could Derail U.S. Growth | WSJ Survey: Economists See Steeper Fed Rate Path, Stronger Inflation | Data
• February: Economists Stick With Optimistic U.S. Outlook Despite Market Turmoil | Data
• January: Economists Credit Trump as Tailwind for U.S. Growth, Hiring and Stocks | WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Rise in March | Data

2017 Stories and Data

• December: U.S. Economic Expansion Could Become Longest on Record | Data
• November: Forecasters Predict Nafta Withdrawal Would Slow U.S. Growth | Data
• October: Economists See GOP Tax Plan Producing Growth Spurt, But Split Over Long-Term Effect | Data
• September: WSJ Survey: Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in December | Data
• August: WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in December | Data
• July: Forecasters Lower Economic Outlook Amid Congressional Gridlock | Data
• June: Unresolved U.S. Debt Ceiling Casts a Shadow Over Many Forecasters’ Economic Outlooks | Data
• May: Economists Say President Donald Trump’s Agenda Would Boost Growth — a Little | Data
• April: Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade | Data
• March: WSJ Survey of Economists Sees Growth Climbing in 2017 and 2018, Then Dissipating | Data
• February: Forecasters See Slow Progress in Labor-Market Measures Favored by Trump Administration | Data
• January: Forecasters See Upside Risks to Their Economic Outlooks at Highest in More Than Two Years | Data

2016 Stories and Data

• December: Economists Doubt the U.S. Can Regain Many of the Factory Jobs Lost in Recent Decades | Data
• November: GDP, Inflation and Interest Rates Forecast to Rise Under Trump Presidency | Data
• October: Economists Believe a Recession Is Likely Within Next Four Years | Data
• September: WSJ Survey: Economists Still See September Fed Rate Move as Unlikely | Data
• August: Economists See Election-Induced Uncertainty Harming U.S. Economy | Data
• July: WSJ Survey: Half of Economists See No Fed Rate Increase Until December | Data
• June: WSJ Survey: Economists Sharply Lower Estimates of Job Growth in the Next Year | Data
• May: WSJ Survey: Economists Divided Over Next Fed Rate Increase | Data
• April: WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in June | Data
• March: U.S. Election Turmoil Fuels Economic Uncertainty, WSJ Survey Says | Data
• February: WSJ Survey: Economists Lower Growth Estimates Amid Rising Recession Risk | Data
• January: Economists See Continued U.S. Expansion, Heightened Global Risk | Data

2015 Stories and Data

• December: WSJ Survey: Economists Are Convinced Fed Will Raise Rates in December | Data
• November: Economists Overwhelmingly Expect Fed to Raise Interest Rates in December | Data
• October: Economists See U.S. on Cusp of ‘Full’ Employment, WSJ Survey Says | Data
• September: WSJ Survey: China’s Growth Statements Make U.S. Economists Skeptical | Data
• August: WSJ Survey: Economists Cite Budget Battle as a Top Threat | Data
• July: Data
• June: Economists See Bright Consumer Outlook | Data
• May: Economists’ Forecast: Here We Grow Again | Data
• April: Data
• March: WSJ Survey: Economists See Dollar Strength, Global Weakness Restraining U.S. Growth | Data
• February: WSJ Survey: Economists See Cheap Oil Weighing on Capital Investment | Data
• January: WSJ Survey: Economists See 2015 GDP Growth at 3% | Data

2014 Stories and Data

• December: Economists See Stronger Growth in 2015 | Data
• November: Economists’ View: Lower Inflation, Decent Growth | Data
• October: Conditions Ripe for Stronger Growth, WSJ Survey Says | Data
• September: Economists See Overseas Risks as Growth Wild Card | Data
• August: WSJ Survey: Economists See Second-Half GDP Growth of 3% | Data
• July: Data
• June: WSJ Survey: Economists Optimistic Stage Is Set for Pickup in Wage Growth | Data
• May: WSJ Survey: Economists See Growth Rebound | Data
• April: Economists See Growth Spurt Delayed, Not Derailed | Data
• March: Economists See China Slowdown as Biggest Threat to U.S. Recovery | Data
• February: Old Man Winter Taking a Toll, for Now, Economists Say | Data
• January: WSJ Survey: End Emergency Jobless Benefits, Don’t Raise Minimum Wage | Data

2013 Stories and Data

• December: Economists Split on Start of Fed Pullback | Data
• November: Data
• October: Shutdown Likely to Prolong Fed’s Stimulus | Data
• September: Economists Expect Tapering Announcement Next Week | Data
• August: Economists See Just Enough Growth for Fed to Pull Back | Data
• July: Yellen Seen as Front-Runner for Top Fed Post | Data
• June: Economists Wary as Fed’s Next Forecast Looms | Data
• May: Economic Road Clearing, but the Going Is Slow | Data
• April: Economists View Recent Swoon as Mere Hiccup in Growth | Data
• March: Easy-Money Era a Long Game for Fed | Data
• February: Scant Pickup in Economic Growth Seen for 2013 | Data
• January: ‘Cliff’ Deal Seen Hitting Growth | Data

2012 Stories and Data

• December: Economy Poised for 2013 Gain | Data
• November: Storm Expected to Trim Growth, not Spending | Data
• October: Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year | Data
• September: Economists Are Uncertain More Fed Moves Will Work | Data
• August: Debate Over ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Weighs on Growth | Data
• July: Forecasters Predict Fed Will Do More to Spur Recovery | Data
• June: Data
• May: Economists Forecast Subdued Growth in 2012 | Data
• April: Economists Don’t See Fed Action This Year | Data
• March: So Far, Economy Hasn’t Slipped on Oil Prices | Data
• February: Rosier View Has Familiar Ring | Data
• January: Economists Split Over Additional Fed Action | Data

2011 Stories and Data

• December: Inflation Rate Seen Outpacing Home Prices for Years | Data
• November: Economists See Smaller Chance of U.S. Recession | Data
• October: Bleak News for Americans’ Income | Data
• September: Economists Say That U.S. Recession Looks More Likely | Data
• August: Feeble Numbers Stir Recession Fears | Data
• July: Dearth of Demand Seen Behind Weak Hiring | Data
• June: Sluggish Hiring Seen as a Threat to Recovery | Data
• May: Economists in Survey Discount Inflation | Data
• April: Economists See Growth Accelerating Later in Year | Data
• March: Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7%, Highest Since Carter-Ford, but the Trend May Matter Most | Data
• February: Consumer and Business Spending to Spur Expanding U.S. Economy | Data
• January: Data

2010 Stories and Data

• December: Economists Predict Growth in 2011 | Data
• November: Few See Another Round From Fed | Data
• October: Wary Economists Expect Fed Asset Purchases | Data
• September: Economists’ Outlook Dims | Data
• August: Economists Want Policy Makers to Back Off Now | Data
• July: Economists Express More Optimism Than General Public | Data
• June: Economists Expect Slow U.S. Growth | Data
• May: Experts See Europe Crisis Delaying Fed Rate Boost | Data
• April: Fed Is Expected to Keep Rates Low for Now | Data
• March: Economists Credit Fed For Alleviating Crisis | Data
• February: Economists Expect Shifting Work Force | Data
• January: Economists Point to Muted Growth in 2010 | Data

2009 Stories and Data

• December: Most Economists Urge Action on Jobs | Data
• November: Economists See Fed Raising Rates Near Midterm Elections | Data
• October: Scarred Job Market Expected to Weigh on Economy | Data
• September: Economic Confidence Rebounds | Data
• August: Economists Call for Bernanke to Stay, Say Recession Is Over | Data
• July: Few Economists Favor More Stimulus | Data
• June: Economists See Fed on Hold Until 2010 Amid Jobs Weakness | Data
• May: Economists Foresee Protracted Recovery | Data
• April: Data
• March: Obama, Geithner Get Low Grades From Economists | Data
• February: Economists’ U.S. Outlook Dims | Data
• January: Data

2008 Data

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• October: Data
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• July: Data
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• January: Data

2007 Data

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2006 Data

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2005 Data

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2004 Data

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2003 Data

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