Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Increased to ‘Above Normal,’ NOAA Says
Record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures could fuel hurricane activity Hurricane Ian tore through Fort Myers Beach, Fla., in October, littering San Carlos Island with boats and debris. Photo: Rebecca Blackwell/Associated Press By Talal Ansari Updated Aug. 10, 2023 5:18 pm ET The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday increased its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season to “above normal” from its previous estimate of a “near-normal” season. This year’s hurricane season, which typically runs from June to the end of November, has been difficult to predict, climate scientists said. The El Niño climate pattern traditionally helps temper the Atlantic hurricane season. This year, that’s counteracted by elevated water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean that
Hurricane Ian tore through Fort Myers Beach, Fla., in October, littering San Carlos Island with boats and debris.
Photo: Rebecca Blackwell/Associated Press
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday increased its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season to “above normal” from its previous estimate of a “near-normal” season.
This year’s hurricane season, which typically runs from June to the end of November, has been difficult to predict, climate scientists said. The El Niño climate pattern traditionally helps temper the Atlantic hurricane season. This year, that’s counteracted by elevated water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean that can fuel hurricanes.
“The ongoing El Niño potentially competing with local conditions in the Atlantic increased the uncertainty in the outlook,” said Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA said Thursday that it now expects 14 to 21 named storms this year, of which six to 11 will become hurricanes, which have winds of 74 miles an hour or higher. Two to five storms are expected to be major hurricanes, meaning winds above 111 mph.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday calculated a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a “near-normal” season.
NOAA forecasters in May predicted a “near-normal” Atlantic hurricane season, with 12 to 17 large storms that get named. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.
The typical impact of El Niño produces an Atlantic hurricane season with only about nine named storms, Rosencrans said, including four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
This year is different, in large part because of record-warm sea surface temperatures, NOAA said. Warmer water means more moisture in the air, which fuels bigger and stronger hurricanes, according to NOAA.
In June and July, the sea-surface temperatures in the area of the North Atlantic where most major hurricanes form were the warmest since 1950, Rosencrans said.
And the hurricane-limiting effects of the El Niño have been slow to develop this year, according to NOAA. That may remain the case for much of the hurricane season.
“Normally El Niño knocks down your storms. Normally the warm Atlantic brings up your storms,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. “So it’s kind of a big question as to exactly how that’s going to play out.”
The university, which puts out its own hurricane forecast, in early August also predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. It predicted 18 named storms in 2023, including the five named storms that had already formed this year.
In 2022, NOAA recorded 14 storms, including two, Ian and Fiona, that became major hurricanes and left a trail of destruction in their wake.
Write to Talal Ansari at [email protected]
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