如何摆脱中国的房地产危机

一个繁荣城市的经验

Lessons from a city that is flourishing

要进锦江赋略有点难度。想要到这个位于成都市中心的豪华楼盘看房得先预约，否则进不了那富丽堂皇的四米高大门。就连要在这座1600万人口的西南大都市里打探些关于这个楼盘的信息都不大容易。开发商对于房子能卖出去信心十足，甚至不屑做广告。这种信心并非没有道理。成都有一种独特的悠闲氛围，这里的茶园就是最佳体现，客人们在里面喝茶采耳，一坐就是几个小时。这种闲适的生活节奏加之麻辣鲜香的美食在近年吸引了大批年轻一辈的中国人，锦江赋的销售张晓军（音译）说。其中许多人在这里买房安家。

GETTING INTO Jinjiang Ode is a little difficult. The luxurious property development in central Chengdu will not allow potential buyers through its four-metre-high palatial gates without an appointment. Even finding out about the project in the south-western metropolis, home to 16m people, is tricky. The company behind it is so confident of demand that it does not deign to advertise the flats—a confidence which is not unjustified. Chengdu has a distinct, laid-back atmosphere epitomised by its public tea gardens, in which patrons spend hours sipping hot beverages and having their ears cleaned. The leisurely pace of life and tongue-numbing local cuisine appeal to younger Chinese people, who have come in droves in recent years, says Zhang Xiaojun, a sales agent at the development. Many of them buy homes.

在中国房地产市场久久走不出低迷之际，成都成了例外。从房价和新房销售等多项指标来看，成都的楼市比国内几乎其他任何地方都要好。在国家层面，中央政府针对不断加深的房地产危机采取了多项举措，包括6月13日宣布的降息，但都效果不佳。中国基准股指自5月初触及今年顶峰以来已经下跌了8%，而那时中国似乎仍在朝着疫情后全面复苏的方向飞驰。现在，投资者担心将有更多开发商开始出现资金短缺，并在此过程中拖欠美元债务。专家们都想知道地方性措施能在多大程度上促进增长。成都是一个寻找答案的好地方。

As a prolonged downturn in China’s property market takes hold, Chengdu is an exception. By several metrics, including house prices and sales of new homes, it is faring better than almost anywhere in the country. At a national level, the central government’s response to the deepening property crisis, including an interest-rate cut announced on June 13th, has underwhelmed. China’s benchmark stock index has fallen by 8% since peaking this year in early May, when the country still appeared to be rocketing towards a full post-covid recovery. Now investors fear more developers will start to fall short of cash, defaulting on dollar debts in the process. Experts are asking how much local measures can pump up growth. Chengdu is a good place to search for answers.

成都楼市透着一点不真实感。投行麦格理（Macquarie）的胡伟俊指出，4月至6月的新房销量比2019年同期（即疫情爆发前一年）高出近三分之一。相比之下，中国最大的30个城市的销量下降了四分之一。与此同时，5月成都房价同比上涨了8%，涨幅居大城市之首，并已连续17个月环比上涨。中国许多城市正在努力消化大量已建成但未售出的住宅库存。如果保持目前的销售速度，南方城市珠海将需要12年多的时间才能卖完已竣工或仍在建的住宅，而成都只需要三年多。

There is a faint air of unreality about the local market. New home sales between April and June were nearly a third higher than in the same period in 2019, the year before the covid-19 pandemic struck, notes Larry Hu of Macquarie, an investment bank. In contrast, across China’s 30 largest cities, sales have fallen by a quarter. Meanwhile, in May home prices in Chengdu rose by 8% compared with the previous year, the most of any large city. It has notched month-on-month rises for 17 straight months. Many Chinese municipalities are working through vast inventories of flats that have been built but not sold: it will take the southern city of Zhuhai more than 12 years to sell homes that have been completed or are still under construction if sales stay at the current pace. Chengdu will sell such flats in just over three years.

这种成功要怎么解释呢？自2016年以来，中国每个城市的官员都能够独立制定措施让当地楼市降温或升温。所采用的数措施大多都是限制购房资格和购房套数，以及调节首付比例。在大多数大城市，只有拥有当地户口或居住证的人才有购房资格。在成都，总体上仍在执行限购。但官员设法吸引家庭迁入，以扩大城市规模和增加住房需求。例如，二孩或更多孩子的家庭可额外多购房，本地户口家庭最多可以买三套。即使没有户口的家庭也可以买两套。自今年起，搬到成都投靠成年子女入户的父母也可以购买一套住房。

What explains this success? Since 2016 officials in every Chinese city have been able to devise their own measures for cooling or heating local property markets. Most of the rules employed are restrictions on who can buy a flat, how many they may purchase and the size of the downpayment required. In most large cities, only people with local hukou, or residence permits, are allowed to buy homes. In Chengdu, high-level purchase controls remain in place. But officials have sought to attract families as a way of expanding the city and increasing demand for homes. Residents with two or more children are, for instance, allowed to buy additional homes, and local hukou-holders may buy up to three. Even those without a hukou may buy two. Since the start of the year, elderly parents who move to Chengdu to join their adult children may also purchase a flat.

其他城市也尝试过类似的政策，但成效要小得多。毗邻香港的科技中心深圳放松了一些限购政策，但房价仍同比下跌了1.8%。一种解释是深圳科技行业的大规模裁员。另一种解释是，成都的政策之所以更有效，是因为配合实施了吸引高素质人才的改革，帮助促进了增长。研究公司CreditSights的桑德拉·周（Sandra Chow，音译）指出，自2017年以来，当地政府开始向移居成都、在其快速发展的产业基地工作的人才提供购房补贴和现金奖励。

Other cities have experimented with similar policies, but enjoyed much less success. Shenzhen, the technology hub across the border from Hong Kong, has relaxed some of its restrictions. Yet property prices are still down 1.8% year-on-year. One explanation for this is sweeping lay-offs in the city’s tech sector. Another is that Chengdu’s policies are more effective because they are paired with reforms to attract educated workers, which have helped boost growth. Since 2017 local authorities have handed out housing subsidies and cash rewards to talented people who move to the city in order to work in its rapidly growing industrial base, points out Sandra Chow of CreditSights, a research firm.

去年，成都官员在应对席卷全国的房地产信任危机方面也表现更佳。随着开发商接连破产，许多住宅项目未能完工。成千上万的购房者暂停偿还房贷。更多的人推迟购买新房。桑德拉·周表示，成都官员为开发商疏通现金流，竭尽全力确保楼盘顺利交付。即使是违约的开发商也设法完成了楼盘的建设。与去年同期相比，2023年前两个月竣工的住宅建筑面积增加了约40%。这可能鼓励了犹豫不决的买家冒险一试。其他地区可能也想效仿，但缺乏资金。2022年上半年，成都所在的四川省的市政土地出让增长最为强劲，这将能释放资金，保证建筑商继续开工。

Chengdu’s officials also did a better job of tackling the crisis of confidence that spread across the country last year. As developers went bust, many failed to finish flats. Thousands of homebuyers responded by halting mortgage payments. Many more delayed buying new homes. Officials in Chengdu went to great lengths to ensure homes were handed over, funnelling cash to developers, says Ms Chow. Even defaulting developers managed to complete homes. About 40% more apartment floorspace was finished in the first two months of 2023 compared with the same period the year before. This probably encouraged wavering buyers to take the plunge. Other regions may have wanted to follow suit, but lacked the cash. Sichuan, where Chengdu sits, notched up the strongest growth in municipal land sales of any province in the first half of 2022, which will have freed up funds to keep builders at work.

成都还受益于其他一些因素，这些因素在其他地方很难复制，甚至可能在成都本地都难以再现。从2011年到2021年，该市人口增加了700多万，是世界上人口增长最快的城镇区域之一。研究公司易居中国的严跃进表示，这些迁入人口是住房需求最大的推动力。但此后人口向城市迁移的速度已经放缓。中国没有足够的人口来实现又一次城市人口激增。成都地处西南，这也意味着在过去的房地产繁荣时期这里的房价并没有快速上涨。此外，期间它不断扩大的制造业继续提高居民收入。因此，正如另一家研究公司牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）的卢姿蕙指出的那样，成都是少数几个房价相对于当地收入没有快速上涨的二线城市之一。

Chengdu benefited from some other factors that will be difficult, if not impossible, to replicate elsewhere, and perhaps even in the city itself. Its population rose by more than 7m from 2011 to 2021, making it one of the fastest-growing urban areas anywhere in the world. These inflows have been the biggest driver of housing demand, says Yan Yuejin of E-House China, a research firm. But urban migration has since slowed. There are simply not enough people in China for another population boom. Chengdu’s location in the south-west also meant it did not see rapid rises in prices in past housing booms. Moreover, its growing manufacturing industry continued to lift incomes. As Louise Loo of Oxford Economics, another research firm, notes, it is thus one of a few second-tier cities that have not seen rapid price increases relative to local incomes.

如果势头开始萎靡，成都官员还有一些手段可采用。例如，他们尚未大幅放松限购，让有购房资格的人数大增。成都市房地产开发企业协会的郭洁表示，市场观察人士都在等待这样的动向，因为这将表明市场动力在耗尽，即使是准备最充分的城市也卷入了危机。中国其他地方的决策者也将盯牢成都。

A few levers remain for Chengdu’s officials should things start to look peaky. For instance, they have yet to drastically ease restrictions to allow many more people to buy homes. Market-watchers are waiting for such a development, says Guo Jie of the Local Association of Real Estate Enterprises, an industry group, for it would indicate that steam is running out and that even the best-prepared cities are being swept into the crisis. Policymakers elsewhere in the country will be watching closely, too. ■