Could Tim Scott Pull an Upset?

Over the past six months, most observers have come to believe that Donald Trump is all but certain to become the Republican presidential nominee. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, anointed Mr. Trump’s chief opponent after his landslide re-election victory last year, has stumbled badly since announcing his candidacy and now trails the former president by an average of 32 points in national surveys. The early states look little better. According to recent polls, Mr. Trump’s lead is 23 points in Iowa and South Carolina and 28 points in New Hampshire.

Mr. DeSantis has seemed humorless and unlikable on the stump, and his decision to campaign to Mr. Trump’s right on social issues will give pause to many Republicans desperate for victory in 2024. His early missteps on Ukraine may have dealt his credibility an enduring blow, as Kamala Harris’s shifting stance on Medicare for All did in 2020. The Trump campaign has exploited Mr. DeSantis’s mistakes, and Mr. Trump’s recent attacks on his longstanding opposition to ethanol subsidies will further dim Mr. DeSantis’s chances in Iowa.

Mr. Trump will win the Republican primary unless someone else emerges to challenge him. But it isn’t clear who this could be. Other than the two leading Republican candidates, no one is close to double digits in either the national surveys or Iowa and Hampshire.

It’s premature, however, to conclude that the Republican primary race is over.

At this point in the contest for the 1984 Democratic nomination, the front-runner was former Vice President Walter Mondale, who seemed to have only one significant challenger: John Glenn, the astronaut and national hero who became a senator from Ohio. According to a July 1983 Gallup survey, Mondale’s lead over Glenn was a hefty 16 points (41% to 25%), and no one else was close to 10%. By mid-February 1984, just before the first votes were cast, the former vice president’s lead over Glenn had more than doubled to 36 points. Mondale’s victory seemed inevitable.

At first glance, the outcome of the Iowa caucuses did little to disrupt this narrative. Mondale received 49% while Glenn faded to a dismal 3.5%. Colorado Sen. Gary Hart was the surprise second-place finisher, but his 16.5% share of the vote—barely a third of the winner’s total—didn’t suggest that he would pose a serious threat to the front-runner.

A week later on Feb. 28, the morning of the New Hampshire primary, the New York Times lead story announced that “with Senator John Glenn continuing to fade and no new challenger emerging strongly, Walter F. Mondale now holds the most commanding lead ever recorded this early in a presidential nomination contest by a nonincumbent.” The article cited the results of a NYT/CBS national survey, which gave Mondale 57% of the Democratic vote, compared with 7% each for Glenn and Mr. Hart.

On Feb. 29, the headline of the Times’ lead story read: “Hart Scores Upset With 41% in New Hampshire Primary; Mondale at 29%, Glenn 13%.” This surprise kicked off a fierce two-way battle for the Democratic nomination that lasted until June.

It turned out that Mr. Hart’s runner-up finish in Iowa had shone a spotlight on his candidacy, and New Hampshire voters with reservations about Mondale (especially independents who participated in the Democratic primary) liked what they saw—a fresh forward-looking face. Although Mr. Hart came close to equaling Mondale in total popular votes, the Mondale campaign’s superior organization and understanding of the Democratic Party’s nominating rules proved decisive in the end.

Can anyone pull off a New Hampshire surprise in 2024? My money is on South Carolina’s junior senator, Tim Scott. His affable presence makes him likable on the stump, he has avoided serious mistakes and has a compelling life story as an African-American who rose from humble beginnings (“from cotton to Congress,” he often says). He uses his story to show that America is a country that offers opportunity for all, a message to which most Republicans respond. And by supporting Mr. Scott, Republicans can push back against the charge that their party has been taken over by racist dog-whistlers, a charge that a majority of independents accept, according to a survey by the Public Religion Research Institute. Mr. Scott can distinguish himself from Mr. Trump without having to challenge the former president on his character or record.

These latent strengths won’t be activated, however, unless Mr. Scott stages an early surprise. If he can beat Mr. DeSantis for second place in Iowa, he would have a chance to do even better in New Hampshire. With no serious Democratic contest, most independents will participate in the GOP primary, and Mr. Scott could do well with them. As my colleague Elaine Kamarck has pointed out, some Trump sympathizers might vote in the Democratic contest to support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. , improving Mr. Scott’s chances among Republicans.

After New Hampshire comes South Carolina, where a home-state win could propel Mr. Scott to front-runner status, especially if most other defeated Republicans leave the race and endorse him, as most Democrats did in 2020 after Mr. Biden’s South Carolina victory.