Could US climate envoy John Kerry be ‘channel for communications’ with China?

If US climate envoy John Kerry visits China it will be the highest-level exchange between the two powers since the Chinese balloon episode, and analysts say it could be a tentative first step towards a thaw in ties.

Kerry – who was secretary of state from 2013 to 2017 – told Reuters on Wednesday that Beijing had invited him to visit in the “near term” for climate talks. He said US President Joe Biden had authorised the meeting but the timing of the trip had yet to be determined.

China last year suspended cooperation and talks with the US in areas including climate and security in response to then-House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to self-ruled Taiwan in August.

Climate talks resumed in January, when Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua held a virtual meeting. But the relationship was again tested when the US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon in February. China has maintained that it was not a government spy vessel but a weather monitoring balloon that was thrown off course.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a visit to China following the incident, but on Wednesday said he hoped to make the trip this year, stressing the need to “re-establish regular lines of communication at all levels and across the government”.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said last month that she still hoped to visit China “at the appropriate time”.

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According to the Reuters report, Kerry briefly spoke with the Chinese representative at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin this week and had a virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xie “a week or two ago”.

“China has invited me to visit in the near term to be able to meet with [Xie] to be able to work on work that we’ve been doing for several years, which is trying to find the pathway forward to be able to cooperate in ways that are beneficial to the world. And hopefully, we’ll be able to do that,” he was quoted as saying.

Asked to confirm the potential visit on Thursday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman would only say that China’s position on climate change remained consistent.

Chong Ja Ian, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the Chinese invitation indicated a “positive response” to Washington’s calls for discussions with Beijing.

But he cautioned that it might only be a tentative first step. “Whether the meeting takes place and what happens subsequently if it takes place remains in question,” he said, noting that the Blinken visit had yet to happen.

While talks would likely be focused on environmental and climate change issues, Chong said Kerry appeared to have access and influence in the Biden administration and “could be a channel for communications”.

“A Kerry visit might gauge the possibilities for further engagement over issues of mutual concern, such as facing the climate crisis,” he said.

Zha Daojiong, a professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies, said a meeting between high-ranking officials from the US and China would be a “sign of normalcy” in ties.

But he said the US Congress had a large and decisive role in shaping policy on China and “there seems to be no indication of Congressmen wanting to meet Chinese officials either in Beijing or Washington”.

Zha suggested that a “genuine return to normalcy” in government-to-government contact would require engagement at the working level – meaning officials from different ministries – to yield “real substance” before higher-level ministerial meetings.

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However if Kerry does make the trip, it is unclear if it will open the door to more such exchanges, according to Lu Xiang, an expert on US-China relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Lu said Blinken and other top US officials had signalled they wanted to hold talks with China, but there was no indication they would try to improve ties – pointing to tensions over the trade war, the Taiwan Strait and the Chinese balloon.

He said the strained ties could hamper cooperation on climate change.

“The climate issue is a global issue, but if the bilateral relationship is still an adversarial relationship and the United States still has the situation where China’s green technology is suppressed, then [talk of] cooperation is completely empty talk,” he said.

Additional reporting by Laura Zhou