Could US-Japan-South Korea meeting lead to Washington Declaration’s extension?

A meeting of the leaders of Japan, South Korea and the United States on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Hiroshima later this week will be an opportunity to underline the growing unity of the three governments, analysts say, as well as their shared commitment to regional and global security.

Much of the three-day trilateral meeting, which starts on Friday, will inevitably be taken up with handshakes and expressions of mutual support – at least in public – in the face of challenges posed by China, North Korea and Russia.

US President Joe Biden is likely to be visibly relieved that Washington’s closest security partners in northeast Asia are once again getting along instead of constantly sniping at each other.

Observers also anticipate that the three-way meeting ahead of the main summit could potentially see the extension of the bilateral Washington Declaration – signed when South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol met Biden in the US capital in April – into a trilateral arrangement.

Of particular interest to Tokyo would be participation in the long-standing US-South Korea nuclear consultative group, they suggested, and adding Japan’s voice to discussions on nuclear and strategic planning.

“Vladimir Putin has done more to improve Japan-South Korea relations than anyone else in recent memory,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

He said the war in Ukraine, added to growing anxiety about China and North Korea, was “driving the geostrategic environment to demand greater security cooperation”.

And while relations between Seoul and Tokyo have undoubtedly improved in the 14 months since Yoon became president, historical differences of opinion continue to hang over ties and have contributed to Yoon’s relative unpopularity at home, Kingston said.

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Nevertheless, Seoul has apparently concluded that “it makes no sense to continue to hold Japan’s feet to the coals of history” when the immediate danger comes from North Korea and China, he added.

Given how far out on a limb Yoon has gone in an effort to rebuild relations with Japan, he would unquestionably welcome greater reciprocal conciliatory moves, Kingston said, although Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has not yet gone beyond an expression of how his “heart hurts” when he thinks of the suffering of Koreans under Japan’s 35 years of colonial rule.

Kishida may use the three-way meeting to expound on those expressions of regret, and he is expected to attend a memorial ceremony for Koreans who were killed in the 1945 atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima.

The very fact that the two governments have curtailed criticisms levelled in recent years and replaced them with face-to-face meetings and growing cooperation “will be music to Biden’s ears”, Kingston said.

“This is all about optics and messaging to China and North Korea that the three nations are on the same page and are acting in solidarity with one another,” he said. “There may be disagreements in the back-room discussions, but in public they are going to show unity on the issue of regional security threats.”

A joint statement could include a reference to Taiwan, which Beijing claims at its own, the importance of intelligence-sharing, the development of greater missile defence capabilities, the need to cooperate to ensure supply chains and the development of next-generation microchips, and protecting such advanced technologies.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo, said he would be paying particular attention to the potential expansion of the US-South Korea nuclear consultative alliance on nuclear issues to include Japan.

“There are still some gaps but I think Japan and Korea have done well recently on aligning their positions, and it’s certainly a lot better than previously,” he said.

Now they have to work on putting agreed ideas into action, he said, “and then sustaining that going forward, whether it’s information and intelligence-sharing, security protocols, joint missiles for missile defence or anti-submarine warfare or other areas”.

Hinata-Yamaguchi said there was still a “lack of confidence” between the three governments, with Japan concerned that Yoon’s administration will sooner or later be replaced by another government that is hostile to Tokyo. Equally, there are worries in East Asia that Biden could be replaced in next year’s US presidential elections with a second term for Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, Hinata-Yamaguchi anticipated that the three leaders’ discussions will also take in logistics and the need to set up an arrangement by which their armed forces can more easily collaborate, along with the need to develop even more effective cyberwarfare capabilities.

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“These are all important in their own right, but I’m going to keep a close eye on whether they are inclined to invite Japan to take part in the nuclear consultative group that was set up when Yoon was in Washington, making it a trilateral arrangement,” he said.

Tokyo has not been openly pushing for admission, he said, but he believes there will be a lot of interest in what Japan “presently has under the US nuclear umbrella and knowing US strategies and perceived nuclear risks.

“In many ways it makes a lot of sense to have a trilateral arrangement instead of two bilateral deals,” he added.