Culling the Republican Presidential Herd

The first Republican presidential debate hits the stage in Milwaukee next week, and perhaps the moment will help one or more of the candidates break from the pack. It often does. But before the brawling begins, it’s not too soon to think about how to narrow the GOP field to give former President Trump a challenge that the party and the country deserve.

Mr. Trump is saying he’s unlikely to appear given his lead in the polls. That might be fine for the others, who can showcase their own views and abilities. The former President can’t resist the spotlight, so he might announce he’s coming at the last minute. But if he doesn’t, voters can fairly conclude he thinks he’s got the nomination wrapped up.

He’s already acting like it, focusing his fire on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has been second in the polling. He’s also praising Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old entrepreneur who has defended Mr. Trump on the stump. The man from Mar-a-Lago wants a divided field with a half dozen candidates splitting single- or low double-digit support.

That’s what happened in 2016 when Mr. Trump rode pluralities to the GOP nomination. In Iowa he came in second, with 24% of the vote. Then he won New Hampshire with 35% and South Carolina with 33%. Too many nonviable candidates stayed in too long, many believing Mr. Trump would eventually blow up and hoping to be the lone contender against him.

The potential for a repeat next year is clear based on the polls from early states. In Iowa, where the kickoff caucuses are on Jan. 15, Mr. Trump is at 44% support in the Real Clear Politics average. Second is Mr. DeSantis with 17%. The remainder of the non-Trumps collectively have 27%.

Looking at New Hampshire, the primary coming soon thereafter, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has moved into second in the most recent poll from Emerson College. But he’s still only at 9%, and the rest of the non-Trumps split 29%. Mr. Trump is at 49%.

Then comes South Carolina, where the polling average has Mr. Trump at 43% and Mr. DeSantis at 17%. But next is the home team, former Gov. Nikki Haley at 13% and Sen. Tim Scott at 9%, with another 9% for the others. If Ms. Haley and Mr. Scott don’t do well in the first two states, they might see South Carolina as their moment in the sun, which is what John Kasich did in Ohio in 2016. It was too late, and it will be too late again to stop Mr. Trump if he wins those early states.

The Milwaukee debate should be the first culling line. The candidates who say they’ve qualified so far are Messrs. Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Scott and Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, Ms. Haley and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Any announced candidate who hasn’t qualified for the debate based on the Republican National Committee’s criteria isn’t likely to strike political lightning from the sidelines. Staying in longer is essentially a vanity project, or an audition to be a talk-show host.

The debate and its aftermath will also be a sorting opportunity. A bad performance could mean that support flat-lines and fund raising evaporates. No candidate who has been sleeping in Holiday Inns for months will want to drop out, but a failure to break out by the second debate on Sept. 27 means there’s little chance of doing so. By the start of autumn, anyone who’s polling in the single digits should be asking what it would accomplish to come in fourth in Iowa or New Hampshire.

This will be a matter of self-interest as well as the good of the party and conservative cause. GOP voters aren’t likely to look fondly on a candidate who stays in the race merely to get more face time on cable with no chance of winning. These candidates will be seen either as gadflies or Mr. Trump’s cat’s-paws.

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Democrats, the press corps and Mr. Trump all want Mr. Trump to be the GOP nominee, which is why they’re all suggesting the race is already over. But he’s fallen somewhat recently in the polls, and about half of his current supporters say they’d consider someone else. More Republicans are also saying they don’t want him as the nominee if he’s convicted of a crime.

President Biden is eminently beatable if the election campaign is about his record and obvious decline. But not if the election is about Mr. Trump and his grievances and legal peril. Republicans deserve a real nominating contest, not a third Trump coronation, and that means narrowing the field early.