Does China have a role to play in helping to end Sudan’s crisis?

China might be able to help mediate in the deadly conflict in Sudan but the warring parties are still far from any compromise, according to analysts.

Clashes between rival Sudanese military forces this month have left at least 350 people dead and thousands wounded.

The fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the heavily armed Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group erupted in the capital Khartoum on April 15 and flared in other parts of the country after months of jostling for power.

Last month, China helped broker a deal to restore diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, using its leverage with both countries to bring them together.

But a repeat of that success with Sudan was unlikely any time soon, according to Ma Xiaolin, an international relations professor focusing on Islamic countries at Zhejiang International Studies University.

“China is in a good position to be a mediator in the crisis,” Ma said.

“China has always had good relations with Sudan, including relations with their military, and politically speaking, both parties [in the conflict] have trust in China.

“[But] at least for now, judging from official statements, China has not yet shown any intention to mediate and is probably watching the situation evolve.”

Why Sudan is on the brink of another civil war

So far, Beijing has – at least publicly – said only that it hopes the two parties will cease fighting as soon as possible and avoid worsening the situation.

“China hopes that the Sudanese parties will strengthen dialogue and jointly promote the political transition process,” the foreign ministry said on April 16.

Zeno Leoni, a lecturer at the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, said Sudan was an important part of the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region for China.

“In China’s overall grand strategy, Sudan, together with other MENA region countries, can become a key ally of China should Beijing ever decide to take greater international responsibilities,” Leoni said.

“Furthermore, Sudan has been for a long time a supporter of Beijing, and this is important for the legitimacy of Chinese foreign policy endeavours in Africa.”

Hannah Ryder, a senior associate in the Africa programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development were leading the mediation role in the Sudan crisis, but China could still play a role.

“It is very important for China to recognise the role of the African Union and use African solutions to African problems, but China provides a neutral ground for the parties to come together,” Ryder said.

“What China did with Saudi Arabia and Iran really gives the country a background that it can play a helpful role [in mediation].”

One factor that could prompt China to play a part is its economic presence in Sudan, according to experts.

“China’s interest is to end the crisis and ensure that socio-political instability does not jeopardise the flow of oil,” Leoni said.

Before splitting into two nations in 2011, Sudan was an important destination for China’s overseas energy investments, accounting for more than 5 per cent of Chinese crude oil imports.

Beijing is still the largest buyer of oil from South Sudan, which accounts for around 2 per cent of China’s oil needs.

Though South Sudan has most of the oil reserves, most of the pipelines and processing facilities are owned by Sudan, which therefore largely determines the oil flow.

China has a significant presence in the oil companies of both Sudan and South Sudan, covering a wide range of sectors from oil exploration to oil pipeline construction.

China is also one of the biggest investors in Sudan, where Chinese enterprises are involved in various infrastructure sectors and have a market share of over 50 per cent in contracted works.

Moreover, 130 Chinese companies invest and operate in Sudan, which was also home to a sizeable Chinese workforce in 2020, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.

But for Beijing to have any prospect of making a difference, the two sides must show some willingness to come to the negotiating table, something Volker Perthes, the United Nations secretary general’s special representative for Sudan, said was far from happening.

“The two sides who are fighting are not giving the impression that they want mediation for peace between them right away,” Perthes said last week.

Leoni said the origins of the crisis were internal rather than external, and so “the international community might have limited leverage”.

Ma agreed, adding: “External forces are secondary to this role, the main thing is that the two sides of the conflict can reach a compromise, which is the key.”