EU warned to get its story straight on China, amid ‘divide and conquer’ fears

After three weeks of “cacophonous” debate on China, the European Union has been warned to get its story straight – or Beijing will “have us for lunch”.

Diplomats and officials are fretting that an extended bout of public bickering on how to deal with the world’s No 2 economy has exposed deep divisions among the member states and institutions.

That the bloc does not fully agree on a common approach to China is no surprise – these are 27 separate countries, often with competing interests. But it is rare for the fight to be so sustained, and so public.

Political leaders have clashed over how to trade with China and how much to collaborate with the United States on issues related to Beijing.

They are divided on whether the EU should continue seeking China’s help to end the war in Ukraine. A major storm erupted, meanwhile, over the EU’s policy towards Taiwan after French President Emmanuel Macron intimated in a media interview that Europe should not follow US strategy on the island.

Biden and Macron discuss French leader’s recent China visit

In the European Parliament last week, top diplomat Josep Borrell acknowledged the “cacophony” of voices on China, with “not everyone saying the same thing or in the same way”.

“There are simply different points of view between member states as regards China, this ought not to be a surprise to anyone,” he said. “There are some failings to coordinate between EU institutions and member states. These could have been avoided.”

When its foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg on Monday, they will take the very initial steps to brokering a consensus – even if few expect the bloc to agree on a coherent, single voice any time soon.

“EU unity when speaking about all things China is crucial, because if we don’t do that, they’ll have us for lunch,” said one diplomat ahead of the talks.

Critics point to a disjointed simultaneous visit to China by French leader Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this month.

Macron was greeted by cheering crowds and treated to all the pomp and pageantry Beijing has to offer. He signed a swathe of business deals, even as von der Leyen delivered a message to Xi of economic “de-risking”.

Brussels’ chattering classes were aghast at the sight of the commission chief being met by a junior minister at the public arrivals lounge of a Beijing airport.

While Macron was dining with Xi at a state banquet, the German was giving an abstemious press conference at the EU headquarters in Beijing, then flying back to Belgium via a Middle Eastern layover.

“She was humiliated,” texted one senior diplomat, complaining that the disparity in imagery laid bare the two camps on the EU’s China policy.

However, a person close to von der Leyen told the Post it was a storm in a teacup – she was invited to dine with Macron and Xi but declined, preferring not to be a third wheel at what was a French state banquet.

She did, however, dine in grand fashion with Premier Li Qiang at a banquet the previous evening, and was also invited back for another, longer visit to China, the source said.

Nonetheless, the optics have helped fuel suspicions that Beijing is trying to exploit the divisions to further undercut EU unity. In von der Leyen’s own terms, it is deploying “divide and conquer” tactics.

This is not a new accusation: in 2018, during his first official meeting with the Chinese foreign ministry, ex-EU ambassador Nicolas Chapuis was asked why he had bothered coming.

“You are irrelevant, ambassador,” sources who were present said Chapuis was told. “If we need something from Europe we will pick up the phone to Berlin or Paris.”

With Brussels cooking up a suite of trade defence instruments that will restrict Chinese firms’ access to the EU market, business figures have in recent weeks been lambasted by Chinese diplomats for not “doing more” to lobby the EU to go softer, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

They have also leaned on business groups to help unlock a bilateral investment pact that is stalled in a row over sanctions.

The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) was not raised in two meetings Xi had with von der Leyen, said a source close to the German politician, pointing to the fact that she has already made her position clear when she said it needed to be reworked.

However there is some appetite on the part of European Council leadership and major trading nations to discuss the deal in May and June, a separate EU official said.

China envoy renews call to revive stalled CAI trade pact with EU

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao is expected to promote its resurrection when he lands in the Belgian capital for a European tour on Monday.

A senior EU official on Asian affairs said they were “never surprised by the capacities of big powers to divide the EU.

“It’s in the nature of things that big powers who happen to be one nation state like to work on the divisions between different member states – it’s probably natural.”

Monday’s discussion will continue into May and June, first at a foreign ministers’ meeting in Stockholm, then a leaders’ summit in Brussels. Officials will try to crystallise a new approach, building on a debate last October in which they agreed to reduce dependencies on China.

There is some interest in revamping the 2019 strategy through which the country is viewed as a partner, competitor and rival. Earlier this month, at a meeting of Asia-focused diplomats from each EU member, Germany floated the idea of an ambassadors-level debate about whether the “triptych” is still fit for purpose, two diplomatic sources said.

However, the motion was shot down by the External Action Service, the de facto EU foreign service, largely because the triptych is vague and flexible enough to suit 27 countries with vastly different interests.

There are also doubts over whether they would be able to agree on a new definition.

In recent months, however, the “competitor” and “rival” prongs have been on the rise. This point was hammered home by von der Leyen on March 30, during a hawkish speech that sparked the fevered debate.

EU chief calls for muscular policy to counter China’s ‘alternative world order’

“The CCP’s clear goal is a systemic change of the international order with China at its centre,” the president said, referring to China’s ruling Communist Party.

She proposed “de-risking” the relationship, and has charged her staff with coming up with a policy proposal by mid-June – an unfathomably short timeline in the glacial world of EU policymaking.

“Von der Leyen’s speech placed China at the centre of EU’s conversations and ignited a debate on where member states stand vis à vis the elements raised in that speech,” said Francesca Ghiretti, an analyst of EU-China relations at the Mercator Institute of China Studies think tank.

“Even if differences long predated the speech and the visits, they are now coming to light more prominently, but I see that as positive,” she added.

On this front, analysts and officials say that despite the mixed messaging, the members agree on the broad concept, even if von der Leyen has taken it further than members expected.

At October’s meeting, an official who was present noted, there was no outpouring of support for China, nor was there any attempt to shoot down the de-risking initiative. “Even Hungary didn’t object,” they said, referring to China’s closest ally in Europe.

And while Macron has spoken of the need to bolster economic ties with China, his pet theory of “strategic autonomy” has helped galvanise some of the trade instruments that have drawn complaints from Beijing.

The French were fervent sponsors, for example, of the anti-coercion instrument, a trade instrument concluded last month in Brussels that will allow the EU to hit back at economic strong-arming, such as Beijing’s unofficial boycott of Lithuanian exports due to a row over Taiwan.

Macron calls for ‘European sovereignty’ amid furore over Taiwan comments

“Contrary to the perception created by their recent not-so-joint visit, Macron and von der Leyen are fundamentally on the same side of this divide,” said Sven Biscop, a political scientist at the Egmont-Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels.

Macron’s concept of autonomy and von der Leyen’s of de-risking are not exclusive, but entirely compatible, Biscop said.

“While the EU is reinforcing its strategic autonomy, it definitely has no interest in an acceleration towards a ‘duopoly’, as Macron calls it, ie, a world driven by Sino-American rivalry. Therefore the EU must engage China at the same time as asserting its own autonomy,” he added.