Fitch triggers new Jan. 6 political battle with U.S. rating cut

The latest U.S. credit downgrade is giving the White House a new reason to denounce Republicans for the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection — just as former President Donald Trump faces charges related to the assault.

In an announcement that hit almost simultaneously with Trump's indictment, Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said it lowered the U.S. debt rating by a notch in part because of an "erosion of governance." The Biden administration blasted the decision as off-base but focused blame on Republicans because of concerns Fitch has raised about Jan. 6.

"It’s clear that extremism by Republican officials — from cheerleading default, to undermining governance and democracy, to seeking to extend deficit-busting tax giveaways for the wealthy and corporations — is a continued threat to our economy," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.

It's a new dynamic to the political blame game over Wall Street's unease with Washington dysfunction, which has been heightened by repeated stalemates over maintaining the government's borrowing authority and fraught debates about the validity of national elections themselves. Fitch's downgrade reflects growing concern about U.S. governance, from its ability to responsibly manage its budget to its tendency toward high-stakes political conflict.

Republicans responded by using the Fitch downgrade to decry government spending and deficits.

The House Freedom Caucus rehashed criticism that the Biden administration should have acted sooner to reach a compromise with conservative lawmakers on raising the debt ceiling. House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said "this is a wake-up call to get our fiscal house in order before it’s too late."

“While concerns about Fitch’s history of subjective ratings changes are certainly warranted, there is no question that our nation’s debt is unsustainable," said Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer of Missouri, a Republican who voted to overturn the 2020 election results on Jan. 6, 2021. "Reckless fiscal policy that caused the inflation we’re still suffering is also harming confidence in our currency and treasuries."

Administration officials told reporters Tuesday that Fitch repeatedly raised the Capitol assault as a factor. The agency had cited the contested 2020 election — as well as the most recent debt-limit stalemate — as it warned for months of a potential downgrade. Fitch did not specifically cite Jan. 6 in its written announcement, though it did mention governance more broadly.

Wall Street largely shrugged off Fitch's decision when markets opened on Wednesday.

The market for U.S. government debt — a bedrock of global finance because of the creditworthiness of the world's largest economy — barely showed an impact. Fitch's decision came as the Treasury Department prepared to sell $103 billion of debt to investors through the end of the year, after the government's borrowing authority was lifted in June.

Treasury yields had already been climbing in recent days as investors digested strong economic data and news that the U.S. government would be increasing the amount of debt it is issuing.

“The tepid market reaction thus far, we think, says it all,” former Treasury official John Fagan, now with the research firm Markets Policy Partners, said in a research note. “Nothing to see here.”

Treasury assistant secretary for financial markets Josh Frost told reporters Wednesday morning that officials have seen “limited to no impact” on the U.S. government's ability to tap new funding following the Fitch announcement.

“We continue to see robust demand for Treasury securities," he said. "The decision last night doesn’t change what Americans, investors and people all around the world already know, which is that Treasury securities remain the world’s preeminent asset and that the American economy is fundamentally strong."

Even Larry Summers, a frequent critic of the administration’s economic and fiscal policies, pooh-poohed Fitch’s decision.

“Rating agencies follow markets, they don't lead them — especially in the case of widely followed markets. And Treasury is the most widely followed of all,” the former Treasury secretary said in an interview. “Nobody sensible should change their mind about anything on the basis of Fitch's proclamation.”

Wall Street analysts downplayed the impact of the move but some said it could take time to be felt.

Richard Bernstein, a former Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist who now leads his own investment firm, said Wednesday that U.S. borrowing costs climbed after S&P issued its own U.S. downgrade following the 2011 debt limit impasse, but “no one noticed because the overall level of interest rates was so low.”

Few on Wall Street expect Fitch’s downgrade will do much to deteriorate the dominance of Treasury securities in the near term.

“There's no reason to think that there's a specific rating implication that would prompt a sell-off,” said Joan Feldbaum-Vidra, senior managing director and head of the sovereigns ratings group at KBRA.