Haley is solidly second in SC. What will it take for her to overtake Trump in the primary?

As former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has moved into a clear second place in polls the early primaries in the Palmetto State and in New Hampshire, she still has the challenge of catching up to the former president.

Donald Trump maintains a dominant 35-point lead in the latest Winthrop University Poll of Republican voters in South Carolina, the state that will hold the First in The South Republican presidential primary.

A recent CNN poll found Trump’s support in South Carolina is at 53%, with 82% of his supporters saying they have made up their mind.

With roughly one-in-five of Trump’s South Carolina supporters being persuadable, it leaves a narrow path for Haley to be victorious in the winner-take-all Feb. 24 primary.

“It is slow and steady wins the race,” Haley told reporters Oct. 30 when she filed to be on the ballot in the S.C. GOP primary. “But you win it based on relationships. You win it based on touching every hand, answering every question and earning the trust of the American people. And I think that we will see that if you saw the polls today in Iowa, I am now in second place in Iowa. Second place in New Hampshire, we are now second place in South Carolina.

“I got one more fella I gotta catch up to, and I am determined.”

A recent Des Moines Register poll had Haley in tied with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place among Iowa voters, but other polls have her in third place. She has become the clear second-place candidate in New Hampshire.

Haley’s path ultimately might rely on the field further narrowing after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, and needing Trump to win smaller than expected victories in the first two states.

Haley has been battling with DeSantis to be the sole Republican to take on Trump, and the DeSantis campaign has argued that his supporters’ second choice would most likely be Trump, not Haley or another alternative.

In recent weeks, Haley’s support in polls has increased following her performances in the first three Republican candidate debates.

“Poll after poll has proven Nikki Haley is the best challenger to Donald Trump and Joe Biden. She’s second in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and is the only candidate with upward momentum,” said Ken Farnaso, spokesman for the Haley campaign. “South Carolinians know their governor has what it takes to win because they’ve seen her beat the odds — not just once, but twice.”

Trump’s floor for support among the South Carolina Republican electorate may be in the low 40-something percent, but the CNN poll also found the former president is the first or second choice of 66% of respondents.

The same CNN poll found Haley was the first or second choice of 41% of South Carolina Republican primary voters.

“Haley needs to be the No. 1 non-Trump (candidate), and she needs to be the second choice of every other non-Trump voter,” said Scott Huffmon, the director of the Winthrop University Poll. “So if she gets momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, those South Carolina voters would say, ‘My anti-Trump person has fallen by the wayside and lost momentum, I’ll now flip to Nikki Haley.’”

But even in a two-person race, Haley may still need some Trump supporters to come to her camp.

“The path is just razor thin,” said Robert Oldendick, a political science professor emeritus at the University of South Carolina. “If everything possible went right, if the other candidates besides those two dropped out, and all the supporters from the other candidates went to Haley ... the soft support for Trump, some of that weak support has to flip to her.”

Where do Scott’s voters go?

In recent weeks, Republican candidates have begun dropping out of the race, including Haley’s fellow South Carolinian, Sen. Tim Scott. The latest Winthrop poll, which was taken right before Scott departure from the race, had the state’s junior U.S. senator at 10% support in his home state.

A plurality of Scott’s supporters in Iowa are likely to support Haley, a position held by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, according to Axios.

“It is clear that if anyone is benefiting from Scott’s dropping out, it is his fellow South Carolinian, Nikki Haley, not Ron DeSantis,” Fabrizio and his colleagues write, according to a memo obtained by Axios.

Haley now has an opportunity to encourage Scott supporters to come to her camp in their home state.

“With Haley in a steady second, further growth in her South Carolina support may depend on getting those former Tim Scott voters on board early and showing strength and momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire,” Huffmon said. “Even with those pieces of the puzzle falling into place, overcoming Trump’s commanding lead is a very tall order.”

Haley could get help from those who are Independents.

People who are most likely to be GOP primary voters tend to be the strongest Republicans, who will most likely be Trump supporters Huffmon said.

South Carolina, however, has an open primary, and GOP-leaning Independents may participate in the Republican primary.

The latest Winthrop poll, when including GOP-leaning Independents, had Haley’s support at 18.7%. Trump was at 47.6%.

“The harder you turn out the base, the more you’re going to get Trump supporters,” Huffmon said. “They need to reach out to Independents and Republican leaners.”

“You’ve got to get them to the primaries, because they are less likely to be wedded to Donald Trump,” Huffmon added.

Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Haley could look to build off of the performance of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, whom she endorsed in 2016.

Rubio received 22% of South Carolina’s primary vote and won Richland and Charleston counties.

“She would need to build onto that Rubio coalition of doing well in Charleston, maybe Berkeley and Dorchester as well. Maybe she could have a good chance at carrying Lexington because that’s her home base,” Coleman said.