Has Biden Already Lost Iowa and New Hampshire?
By James Freeman April 27, 2023 4:46 pm ET Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and wife Cheryl Hines wave with family members onstage at an event where he announced his run for president last week in Boston. Photo: Josh Reynolds/Associated Press The Democratic establishment figured it could get away with demoting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional spots at the start of the presidential nominating contests calendar. The theory was that by promising sanctions against any candidates unwilling to accept a new Biden-friendly calendar, Democrats could ensure the elevation of states like South Carolina, home of key Biden ally Rep. James Clyburn. But what if Mr. Biden’s rivals don’t care about the Democratic establishment and aren’t afraid of punishments from party bosses? As voters keep expressing to poll
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and wife Cheryl Hines wave with family members onstage at an event where he announced his run for president last week in Boston.
Photo: Josh Reynolds/Associated Press
The Democratic establishment figured it could get away with demoting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional spots at the start of the presidential nominating contests calendar. The theory was that by promising sanctions against any candidates unwilling to accept a new Biden-friendly calendar, Democrats could ensure the elevation of states like South Carolina, home of key Biden ally Rep. James Clyburn. But what if Mr. Biden’s rivals don’t care about the Democratic establishment and aren’t afraid of punishments from party bosses? As voters keep expressing to pollsters how little they think of Mr. Biden, Iowa is trying to maintain its kickoff caucus and New Hampshire is threatening to be a first-in-the-nation primary loss for the incumbent. Meanwhile, voters nationwide may not be impressed with the Biden effort to rewrite political rules in his favor.
Alex Seitz-Wald reports today for NBC News that the president is “already on track to sacrifice New Hampshire’s famed primary to a fringe rival like Marianne Williamson or Robert Kennedy Jr.” and adds:
The unusual situation is one of Biden’s own making, thanks to the new primary calendar the Democratic National Committee ratified at his behest in February, which seeks to demote Iowa and New Hampshire and prohibits candidates from campaigning — or even putting their name on the ballot — in a state that jumps the line.
The problem is that New Hampshire and Iowa, both of which Biden lost in 2020, plan to disregard the DNC and hold their contests first anyway, most likely forcing Biden to forfeit the first unofficial contests of 2024.
The rules apply to Williamson and Kennedy as well, but they’ve indicated they’re willing to accept the DNC’s unspecified penalties for rule violations since they’re running anti-establishment campaigns anyway.
Even pillars of the Democratic establishment in New Hampshire have been souring on Mr. Biden. This week the powerful Service Employees International Union announced its expected endorsement of Mr. Biden’s re-election. But the same day a Granite State affiliate, the State Employees’ Association of New Hampshire, issued its own announcement:
After careful consideration and in stark contrast to the State Employees’ Association affiliate, Service Employees International Union (SEIU), we want to make it clear that we are not endorsing Joe Biden for re-election in the upcoming presidential race at this time.
Following a robust analysis of the current political landscape, we have come to the conclusion that our members and New Hampshire voters deserve a competitive Democratic Primary. While we respect President Biden’s decades of experience in public service and his commitment to public policy, we believe that his record and actions during his first term as president do not merit an automatic re-endorsement. We eagerly await his return to the Granite State to continue the conversation about his labor priorities, and our door is always open to President Biden.
What makes all of this especially awkward for the White House is that, roughly eight months before primary voters start going to the polls, the “fringe rivals” are already getting some traction. Ms. Williamson and Mr. Kennedy shouldn’t take this personally. They are legitimately strange candidates. Yet a national Emerson College poll released today on the race for the Democratic presidential nomination pegs Mr. Kennedy’s support at 21% and Ms. Williamson’s at a respectable 8%.
It’s Joe Biden’s weakness that is inviting Democratic voters to consider such alternatives and this weakness is likely to invite other candidates to enter the race. What’s also unsettling for the White House is that if Mr. Biden is unable to execute on his strategy of ducking debates and somehow ends up on a stage with the fringe rivals, he could easily come off as the strangest of the three. Josh Christenson reports for the New York Post:
Things apparently went downhill from there, according to the Post’s Mr. Christenson:
Another child at the White House event asked Biden: “Do you watch the Stanley Cup playoffs, and if you do, do you have a favorite team?”
“I did, and I do: the Philadelphia Flyers,” the president answered, apparently unaware that the team did not make the tournament this year.
The commander-in-chief also rattled off the names of grandchildren Naomi, 29, Finnegan, 23, Maisy, 22, Natalie, 18, Robert Hunter Biden II, 17, and Beau Jr., 2, but stopped short of mentioning Navy Joan Roberts, the often-unacknowledged 4-year-old daughter of Hunter and Lunden Roberts, a former stripper.
Good thing for Mr. Biden none of the young questioners is constitutionally eligible to run against him.
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Mr. Freeman will host “WSJ at Large” this Friday at 7:30 p.m. EDT on the Fox Business Network. The program repeats at 9:30 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday and Sunday.
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James Freeman is the co-author of “Borrowed Time: Two Centuries of Booms, Busts and Bailouts at Citi” and also the co-author of “The Cost: Trump, China and American Revival.”
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