In Europe, Far Right is Gaining Influence. Spain Could Be Next.

VALENCIA, Spain—For decades after the death of dictator Francisco Franco, Spain was viewed as largely immune to the appeal of the far right. That is no longer so. After years in opposition, the far-right Vox party has emerged as a likely kingmaker in Spain’s coming parliamentary elections.

Across Western Europe, stridently nationalist parties considered fringe just a few years ago are moving to the center stage, promising to banish crime, restore traditional values, increase welfare and disempower what they describe as out-of-touch elites. 

The groups are gaining popularity over the failure of governments to address the economic woes of the working class and solve a slow-burn refugee crisis. In some countries, they are also benefiting from growing fatigue over Europe’s continued support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

“A right-wing populist backlash by the white working class was inevitable,” said Thomas Greven, a professor of political science at the Free University of Berlin who studies right-wing populism in Europe and America. “For me, it goes back to the failure of center-left, social-democratic parties to manage, in a socially acceptable way, increased global competition.” 

Spain is shaping up to become the next example of the trend. The moderately conservative Popular Party is leading in the polls ahead of Sunday’s election, but it is unlikely to secure the votes it needs to rule alone.

That is why its leadership is reluctantly considering an alliance with Vox, a party that prominent members of the PP have described as extremist, xenophobic and hostile to women.

The radical right “is becoming normalized,” said Rafael Bardají, a political strategist for Vox. “Once you have a government in place like Meloni’s [in Italy], people no longer smell sulfur when they see you.” 

The trend is evident across the continent. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is leading Western Europe’s most right-wing government in decades. In Scandinavia, the Sweden Democrats are providing vital outside support to the ruling coalition in Stockholm. In France, the popularity of the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is growing and the gap in opinion polls between her and President Emmanuel Macron has narrowed.

Elsewhere, centrist parties are struggling to isolate groups long shunned as pariahs. In Germany, the nativist AfD, or Alternative for Germany, recently won its first district election. Its popularity is close to a record high, making it the country’s second-most popular party, according to polls.

While the messages of Europe’s far-right parties vary across the continent, their popularity is generally driven by mainly white, Christian lower-middle- and working-class voters who feel economically left behind and oppose social change. 

The parties’ focus on upholding the interests of the native-born and their resistance against rising diversity in society marks them apart from established conservative forces, political scientists say. So do their admiration for foreign strongman leaders and their authoritarian tendencies expressed in their disdain for institutions like the courts or the free press, which they regard as biased and left-leaning. 

Increasingly, far-right parties have been focusing on culture-war issues, such as gender identity and climate change.

Even where they don’t win elections, the far right is pulling mainstream parties away from the center and influencing how their countries are run. Their growing prominence could reshape the continent’s political landscape on issues ranging from immigration to climate to the rights of the LGBTQ community. 

Mainstream conservatives increasingly find themselves in the predicament of having to decide whether to join hands with their more right-wing competitors, co-opt their ideas or risk staying out of power.

The outcome of the Spanish election is hard to predict. It is still possible they will lead to a new term for the incumbent Socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez.

But polls show the PP is widely expected to fare better, with around 35% of Spaniards planning to vote for it, according to the latest polls. Vox is expected to win 13% of the vote, roughly in line with the previous election.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP’s leader and front-runner to be Spain’s next prime minister, has said he doesn’t want to share power with Vox, whose supporters and members include admirers of Franco, the late Spanish dictator. But the PP’s best shot at winning an absolute majority in parliament is by doing just that.

Following elections in the coastal region of Valencia in May, the two parties quickly reached a power-sharing agreement to replace the center-left administration in one of the richest and most populated parts of Spain. 

For Vox, it was a coup. Until a few months ago, it had been a marginal player in Spain’s federal political system. Vox was in the local government of just one of Spain’s 17 regions, Castile and León. In some regional parliaments, Vox politicians didn’t have a single seat. Now they are in parliaments in all of Spain’s regions and share power with the PP in four of them. More could follow. 

“We are very used to being in the margins,” said Carlos Flores, a prominent Vox politician in Valencia. “Being in government in Valencia, in other communities and possibly at the national level is an enormous leap for us.”

Like other radical right politicians, Flores is an admirer of Hungary’s populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose government the European Union’s parliament has called an “electoral autocracy” for hounding the free press, eroding the independence of courts, and criminalizing the work of certain NGOs.

Vox was founded a decade ago by ex-PP members who felt their party was moving too close to the center. It gained popularity after separatists in Catalonia staged an illegal referendum that called for the region’s independence in 2017. Vox faulted the government for being too soft on the separatists. Two years later, it won its first seats in Spain’s parliament.

“These are disgruntled conservative voters who felt their party failed them. What really got them going is that Spanish unity was at stake,” said Charles Powell, the director of Madrid’s Elcano Royal Institute, a think tank. Vox has also taken up culture-war issues. “They are reacting against what they see as an attack against Spanish values: national identity, Catholicism, even bullfighting.”

Among those who plan to vote for Vox on Sunday is Carmen Ramirez, 63. The party’s opposition to regional autonomy is a key reason she supports it.

“Vox has values that are completely in line with mine: the importance of Spanish unity, the respect for traditions and religions,” said Ramirez, who works for a women’s clothing business. She doesn’t oppose immigration but says it should be more regulated, in line with Vox’s policy.  

Vox is pushing for a naval blockade to stop migrants crossing the Mediterranean on small boats. It also wants migrants who enter Spain illegally to be immediately expelled.

In Valencia, Vox will oversee departments including culture, agriculture and justice. That model could provide a blueprint for sharing power with the PP at the national level, say Vox politicians. 

For many PP voters and party members, an alliance with Vox is hard to swallow. After May’s regional elections, the PP’s leader in the southern region of Extremadura said she would never form a coalition with Vox. She singled out the party’s dismissal of gender as a contributing factor in violence against women, its “dehumanizing” rhetoric on migrants, and a recent campaign poster that showed a hand throwing the rainbow symbol of the LGBTQ community into a trash can.

Days later, under pressure from her party leadership, she made a U-turn and struck a deal with Vox to jointly rule the region.

What impact being in government could have on fringe parties such as Vox is an open question. In Italy, Meloni’s party has become more establishment-friendly since it became the country’s most popular party.

Brothers of Italy, which evolved from what was left of the Fascist Party after World War II, has taken up mainstream positions on questions such as the EU and Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

Meloni remains more radical on social issues, such as immigration and the parental rights of gay and lesbian couples. Her government has made it harder for private boats to rescue migrants in the Mediterranean.

Last week, she addressed a Vox campaign rally in Valencia via video link and endorsed the party’s leader, Santiago Abascal.

“Dear friends,” Meloni said. “The time of patriots has arrived.”

—José Bautista contributed to this article.

Write to Margherita Stancati at [email protected]