In Need of Allies, Putin Courts African Leaders in St. Petersburg

At a high-profile meeting in St. Petersburg beginning Thursday with top officials from dozens of African nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be under pressure to reassure some of Russia’s closest allies that his war in Ukraine hasn’t compromised the Kremlin’s ability to provide military and political support to the continent. 

Putin will meet over the next two days with top officials from 49 African nations, according to the Kremlin—a summit that comes at a particularly delicate time for Russian-African relations.

While Putin has looked to some African nations as crucial allies in the face of Western isolation, a recent threat to his leadership at home and his decision last week to withdraw from an international deal that facilitated grain exports from Ukraine could erode that relationship.

Meanwhile, Moscow could struggle to retain its status as the biggest supplier of munitions to African nations given the enormous demands the Ukraine conflict is placing on the Russian arms industry.

These pressures come as both the U.S. and China are working to increase their influence on the continent. Indeed, Chinese and U.S. trade and investment in Africa far outstrips that from Russia, whose much smaller economy is now further constrained by Western sanctions and the war effort.

“Since the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions…we have seen Russia really ramp up its engagement in Africa,” said Joseph Siegle, director of research at the National Defense University’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C. “The summit is a very high-profile opportunity and symbol to show that Russia isn’t isolated, it maintains many friends and can conduct business as usual.”

Relations between Africa and Moscow have shifted in the wake of the war, with many African nations reluctant to condemn Russia’s invasion of its smaller neighbor—a conflict that has weighed on the economies of some poor countries.

Some African countries—who share in Putin’s antagonism to a U.S.-led world order—are eager to buttress Moscow in return for its continued support of their autocratic regimes. Others have instead adopted a neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, similar to many developing countries around the world.

At the United Nations, African countries have been split on whether to support or abstain on various resolutions condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. A group of African leaders have crafted a peace proposal aimed at ending the hostilities, a plan that hasn’t gained traction with either Russia or Ukraine, but which they say they want to discuss further with Putin at the summit.

The gathering is conspicuously smaller than the previous Russian-African summit in 2019. More than 40 heads of state attended that meeting, compared with 17 the Kremlin said it expected to attend this week. The current summit, originally scheduled for four days, was shortened to two days. Roscongress, the event’s organizer, didn’t respond to a request for comment to explain the reason for the truncated agenda.

Earlier this month, Putin had to pull out of a summit with other major emerging markets due to be hosted by South Africa in August because of a warrant for his arrest for alleged war crimes in Ukraine issued by the International Criminal Court. South Africa would have been obliged to arrest the Russian president upon his arrival.

The fate of a U.N.-brokered grain deal will be a central topic at the summit. Last week, Russia pulled out of the agreement with Ukraine and Turkey that permitted Ukraine—one of the biggest producers of farm goods—to ship corn, wheat, sunflower oil and other goods from its ports. Grain prices rose as anticipation of Russia’s withdrawal mounted, and since the day of Moscow’s announcement, corn and wheat futures have climbed 10.5% and 11.7% respectively. The deal’s collapse rattled African nations that have struggled with food insecurity and soaring agricultural prices since the start of the Ukraine war.  

Tensions over the grain deal could be sharpest with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, who will be present at the summit. His country, one of the world’s top importers of wheat, has been hit hard by the economic fallout of the war. Since the start of the conflict, Egypt has scrambled to replace Ukrainian grain with supplies from other countries, including Russia, and is already suffering from 60% food inflation.

Last month’s aborted mutiny by

Governments in Mali and the Central African Republic have hired Wagner mercenaries to help them fight Islamist terrorists and retain power. In taking on these roles, Wagner has offered the Kremlin a useful tool to spread its influence. Moscow has also profited from the trade in gold, timber, diamonds and other assets that Wagner has taken control of in some African countries.

Now, Wagner’s status in Africa remains murky, with conflicting signs as to whether the Kremlin will allow the paramilitary group to retain its role in the countries where it operates and how it might affect Russia’s standing on the continent.  

Russia could try to leverage the dominant position it enjoys in the sale of arms to Africa—if the Russian arms industry can continue to produce enough for export despite the enormous demand for munitions for its war in Ukraine. The Indian military said earlier this year that Russia has failed to deliver on some arms commitments it has made.

Although overall arms exports from Russia have fallen in recent years, it remains by far the largest supplier of weapons to Africa, responsible for around 40% of arms imports to the continent between 2018 and 2022, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released this year.

For many African governments, importing weapons and other military equipment and machinery from Russia is easier than from the U.S., which was the source for around 16% of African arms imports over the past five years. 

The U.S. has laws restricting military support for leaders who have come to power through nondemocratic means, and public scrutiny is high for arms sales to regimes allegedly involved in human-rights violations.

Instead, with Russia, “you get a partner that doesn’t ask many questions and gets you what you need,” said Gustavo de Carvalho, a senior researcher on Russia-Africa ties at the South African Institute of International Affairs. 

Russia has struggled to compete with the West and with China in trade and investment in Africa. At the first Africa summit, in 2019, Russia committed to double its trade with Africa within five years to around $40 billion, but trade with the continent amounted to about $18 billion last year. Chinese-African trade amounted to $282 billion.

Several powerful state-controlled companies, including atomic energy corporation Rosatom, Russian Railways and VTB Bank, will participate in the summit. They could strike agreements with African countries and provide much-needed income for Moscow, while helping to strengthen the Kremlin’s influence.

Putin may also use the summit to bolster Moscow’s standing as a protector of traditional values, a stance that is popular in many African countries.

Earlier this year, Uganda introduced a sweeping new anti-LGBTQ law that allows the death penalty for some same-sex relations, a move criticized by the Biden administration but embraced by senior officials in Moscow. In recent months, Russian lawmakers have approved several antigay laws, including expanding restrictions on anything perceived as promoting gay issues. This week, Putin signed a law banning sex reassignment surgery.

Write to Ann M. Simmons at [email protected] and Gabriele Steinhauser at [email protected]