Indonesia election: Ganjar faces ‘delicate balance’ in Megawati-backed path to power

Ganjar Pranowo runs Indonesia’s third-largest province, has powerful political friends to emboss his popular appeal and is often billed as the natural successor to President Joko Widodo, if elections due in February 2024 go his way.

But 10 months is a long time in politics as the governor of Central Java can attest, after his support for a ban on an Israeli football team from competing in a Bali competition spectacularly backfired, taking a chunk from his poll ratings.

Still, Ganjar has powerful allies – and that bodes well for the election, experts say.

Indonesia’s top contender for presidency sparks backlash after ‘ready’ comment

After months of uncertainty, Ganjar secured the endorsement of Megawati Sukarnoputri, chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) last month.

“The party is still very much a one-woman show,” said Riyadi Suparno, executive director of Tengarra Strategics.

The party holds nearly a quarter of parliamentary seats and is the only group large enough to nominate a presidential candidate without entering into coalition with other parties, under Indonesia’s election laws.

Ganjar had spent months courting Megawati for the nomination, a reflection of the influence that Indonesia’s first female president still exerts.

President Joko Widodo, then governor of Jakarta, engaged in a similar courtship in 2014 as momentum swung behind his campaign. But speculation had been rife that Megawati might favour her daughter Puan Maharani.

Yet Magawati’s backing shows “Ganjar was the only way for the PDIP to stay in power”, Riyadi said.

The PDIP is looking to repeat its success with Jokowi by marrying its institutional heft to a charismatic politician’s star power.

Charming and known for his social media savvy, Ganjar has led in polls for months – keeping Puan at arms’ length.

But with the election nearly a year away, experts say Ganjar will have to be ready for a rough ride.

His campaign hit a rocky patch over his public advocacy that Indonesia should refuse to host the Israeli U20 men’s football team in the World Cup that had been expected to take place in Indonesia this year.

Fifa responded to the controversy stirred up by Ganjar and other politicians by abruptly ditching Indonesia as the host country.

Indonesians angry, sad as Fifa pulls U20 World Cup over its Israel stance

Fans and players alike in the football mad country took to social media to condemn politicians who cost Indonesians the opportunity to see their national team take on the world on home turf.

In a presidential poll by research institute Lembaga Survei Indonesia after the controversy, Ganjar lost his leading position for the first time in months.

But in the long-run, Riyadi says the controversy will evaporate.

“Indonesians have short memories,” he told This Week in Asia. “We expect he’ll recover in the polls over the next couple of months.”

Why Ganjar waded into a red blooded issue, in a country which has positioned itself as a staunch defender of Palestinians for decades, is uncertain.

But observers say it is likely on the orders of Megawati, in exchange for political patronage.

Indeed, even with his nomination now secure, managing that pivotal relationship will be challenging.

The manner of the announcement – Ganjar was summoned to a palace in West Java where Megawati placed a black peci on his head as he bowed before her – suggests the way the relationship skews.

“There was that sense of you’re being put here to serve the PDIP and Megawati. It’s a very delicate balance,” said Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific programme at Chatham House.

Meanwhile, Ganjar faces two other formidable rivals.

One is Minister of Defence Prabowo Subianto. A former general and leader of the Gerindra party, he mounted two unsuccessful presidential campaigns in 2014 and 2019. Having polled second, Ganjar’s recent controversy saw him surmount his rival into first place.

The other is Anies Baswedan, the urbane former governor of Jakarta. Third in the polls, he is working hard to make up ground. Since leaving office as governor in October 2022, he has travelled the country on a well-publicised tour despite strict rules preventing campaigning until November 28.

Much of the current speculation is on the potential for a Ganjar-Prabowo ticket, experts speculating that the ex-general could be nominated as vice-president in return for this backing.

Prabowo has remained ambiguous as to whether he would accept playing second fiddle.

Also backlighting the election is the incumbent Jokowi, who remains popular yet cannot run next year after completing two terms.

“The most important player here will be President Jokowi who is already acting as a kingmaker,” Riyadi said.

“He wants to secure his legacy, in particular building the new capital,” he added, referring to the 466 trillion rupiah (US$31 billion) Nusantara that is under construction in the heart of Indonesian Borneo.

While Anies has publicly vowed to continue the project, Riyadi suggested that many analysts expect the former governor to abandon it as he is seen as the “antithesis” of Jokowi.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world’s third-biggest democracy, is bracing for months of political chicanery ahead, with candidate registration opening in mid October and closing on November 25.

“Until the nominations are in … and the deadline is passed, you’ll never quite know,” said Bland.