Is Putin stronger or weaker without Prigozhin?

Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have been killed in a plane crash near Kuzhenkino, a village halfway between Moscow and St. Petersburg, two months after his forces staged a brief revolt demanding the ouster of Russia's military leadership. Foreign observers, including President Joe Biden, are speculating aloud that Russian President Vladimir Putin probably had Prigozhin killed in retaliation, and U.S. intelligence analysts said Prigozhin was most likely assassinated, probably with a bomb or some other device planted on Prigozhin's private aircraft.

Prigozhin was a longtime ally of Putin who fell out of grace when he led his forces on a march toward Moscow to demand the replacement of Russia's military leaders, whom he accused of botching the invasion of Ukraine. The mutiny was widely interpreted as a serious threat to Putin's government and a humiliation for a leader who tries hard to project an image of power. Several Russian generals were fired after the uprising.

Russia's aviation authority said Prigozhin was on board the plane when it crashed, killing all 10 people on board, according to The Associated Press. U.S. intelligence agencies said there's no definitive, independent proof yet, but it's highly likely Prigozhin is dead, per The New York Times. If confirmed, will Prigozhin's death put an end to or just increase any threat to Putin's power?

Putin's grip on power is stronger than ever

Putin "looked surprisingly vulnerable when he failed to crush the Wagner mutiny by force after having denounced the group's leaders as traitors," said Max Boot in The Washington Post. It was "humiliating" for the Russian leader to have to rely on his "crony," President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, to broker a deal that "allowed Prigozhin and his henchmen to escape seemingly unpunished." Executing Prigozhin turned the tables and made Putin "as strong as ever."

Maybe stronger, said Fred Kaplan in Slate. Putin is cleaning house as a warning to anyone else thinking of challenging him. On the day of the crash, Russia's military formally ousted General Sergei Surovikin, the Russian aerospace forces chief placed under house arrest on suspicion of collusion with Prigozhin. "Killing Prigozhin on top of that step would send a bold signal to those pondering future coups: The man in charge is not to be trifled with or underestimated."

Killing Prigozhin shows weakness, not strength

"Putin clearly understands the rule of all autocrats: strong man today, dead man tomorrow," said Charles Lipson in The Telegraph. The impression that Putin had Prigozhin killed only makes it clear that thanks to the Russian leader's miscalculations since invading Ukraine, Putin knows he's vulnerable. Firing Surovikin, "his most effective general in the Ukraine war," won't help. "Putin's failed war of choice in Ukraine has destabilized his regime," and this week's events put him a step closer to the kind of failure he can't survive, like an "outright loss" or even the surrender of "major territory like Crimea."

"Prigozhin and those who supported him were the uberhawks in Russia's bogged-down war in Ukraine," said Amy Mackinnon and Jack Detsch in Foreign Policy. "His seeming demise at Putin's hands leaves the Kremlin in a bit of a political predicament, risking alienating some of the more influential pro-war voices in Russian society."

If Wagner, a key asset for Russia in Ukraine, is "disbanded and its personnel is persecuted," that could undermine Russia's military, said Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan at the Institute for the Study of War. Grievances over the assassinations of Prigozhin and his associates, especially Wagner Group founder Dmitry Utkin, "may become a focal point for future conflicts between the Russian military establishment and current and former Wagner personnel." Wagner was what one Russian military blogger described as the country's "military elite," and Putin has lost that now.

Putin is on dangerous ground

Russia is still losing troops and equipment at a dangerous pace, said Thomas Grove and Yaroslav Trofimov in The Wall Street Journal. "Worsening economic pain" as the ruble plummets and "social friction resulting from the war have contributed to growing discontent among the troops on the front line — discontent that Prigozhin himself had tried to channel." Even if Prigozhin is gone, Russia's political scene is being shaken by "growing instability" that puts Putin and his inner circle on "potentially dangerous new terrain to navigate."

Prigozhin's demise is bound to "have unintended consequences," said Brian Klass in The Atlantic. It ensnares Putin more tightly in the "dictator trap." Every action "intended to shore up power nearly always winds up undermining it." This week's drama, and all the "mysterious" deaths of people who crossed Putin over his two-decade "reign of terror," will make Kremlin insiders "rightly wonder whether they could be next." "If insiders fear for their own safety, a palace coup becomes more likely. In that way, getting rid of Prigozhin just shifts and delays the threat. Eventually, every dictator meets his end."

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