Is US-Vietnam pledge to boost ties after Antony Blinken’s Hanoi visit mere ‘diplomatic symbolism’?

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday told Vietnam’s leaders that the time had come to elevate relations amid speculation that a formal upgrade in ties is coming closer to fruition.

“From our perspective, we think this is an auspicious time to elevate our existing partnership,” Blinken said at a Saturday press conference in Hanoi.

“I think what you will see in the weeks and months ahead is our teams working on this,” he added.

After arriving in Hanoi on Friday, Blinken on Saturday met with Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trung, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son. He also attended a groundbreaking ceremony for a new eight-storey US embassy.

Without specifically mentioning an upgrade to security partner status, Chinh told Blinken on Saturday morning that the government was making plans to deepen bilateral ties.

“We have assigned relevant agencies to coordinate with the US side so that we will consider, say and do, in the spirit of raising the partnership between the two countries to new heights,” Chinh told his American counterpart.

Since the signing of the US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership in 2013, Vietnam and the US have broadly increased political, economic and defence ties as both countries express fears over Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea.

The lifting of the decades-old weapons embargo against Vietnam in 2016 paved the way for transfers of US military technology. While Russian weaponry continues to account for most Vietnam’s arsenal, Vietnam has also acquired US-built boats, aircraft and other equipment.

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Blinken said on Saturday that the US was finalising the transfer of a third Coastguard Cutter to Vietnam, which will complement the 24 US patrol boats provided since 2016.

While the US has called for a formal upgrade in relations to that of a security partnership, efforts by both the Biden and Trump administrations have received a lukewarm reception in Vietnam.

Le Dang Doanh, a retired senior economic adviser to five Vietnamese prime ministers, said before Blinken’s visit that he hoped that the meetings would resolve the impasse. A formal upgrade in relations, he said, would strengthen Vietnam’s security interests in the region.

“I would feel very happy if Vietnam and the United States upgraded their relationship to a strategic partnership,” said Doanh.

Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow of the Vietnam studies programme and the regional strategic and political studies programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said that stronger security ties with the US would strengthen Vietnam’s position in its dispute over maritime territory in the South China Sea with China.

“Strategically, the US is the number one power in the world, so a good relationship or upgrading relations with the US will help Vietnam improve its diplomatic position, especially in Vietnam’s negotiating position over the South China Sea,” said Hiep.

Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asian security expert at the National War College in Washington, said that Vietnam has long been nervous about provoking China by being seen as too close to the US.

Vietnam, he added, already “gets everything out of the relationship with the United States that they want right now” while the US has emerged as one of Vietnam’s most important trading partners.

“The costs of appearing to get too close to the United States are enormous because China has so many different means to coerce the Vietnamese and pressure them, and they use them all the time,” said Abuza, adding that Washington, in contrast, hoped to amplify the message that Vietnam welcomed an American presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

“The US is obsessed with China, and is always looking to send signals that countries are moving away from China’s embrace, they are welcoming America in the region, that we are a stabilising force,” said Abuza.

But Abuza said the upgrade would amount to “diplomatic symbolism” that would do little to add tangible benefits to the already existing partnership.

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“If the Vietnamese upgrade us, then wonderful, but show me how it’s going to fundamentally change the relationship,” he said.

China, said Hiep, was likely already aware that any such declaration would not amount to a major shift in Vietnamese foreign policy.

“The upgrade of relations with the US is just a diplomatic move, not something so terrible that China can severely punish Vietnam,” he said.

The April 14-16 visit to Vietnam is Blinken’s first as secretary of state. The top US diplomat will travel to Japan on Sunday to attend a meeting of foreign ministers of the Group of Seven nations.