Japan PM Kishida’s Africa tour lays groundwork for G7 summit, as China and Russia concerns loom large

Japan’s bid to reach out to African countries created little impact but was essential in helping Tokyo lay the groundwork ahead of the G7 summit, with Russia and China concerns high on the agenda, analysts said.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week travelled to Egypt, Ghana, Kenya and Mozambique in a trip widely described as an attempt to engage with the “Global South” – a broad term referring to countries with relatively low levels of economic and industrial development – ahead of the forum.

Some media reports have suggested that Kishida’s visit was aimed at expanding Japan’s presence amid Chinese and Russian influence in the region.

Kishida said Japan would act as an intermediary between developing countries and the G7 group of advanced economies. He added that he would seek to organise cooperation in areas such as energy and food security, noting that people in Global South nations were reeling from high costs during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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African countries appear to be divided over the war; among half of all abstentions at the UN general assembly resolution in February that condemned Russia and supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity were from African countries.

Describing the impact of Kishida’s trip as “marginal”, analyst Robert Dujarric said getting the four African countries to take active measures against Russia was difficult as these states did not see what they would get in exchange.

“Unless Japan, the United States, European Union and the United Kingdom promise them money or other assistance, it will be tough,” he said.

Incentives could include better trade terms or even pressure. “[For instance] if they side with Russia, they would get less money, or have more obstacles to their exports. It’s a power politics game,” said Dujarric, the co-director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

Apart from vowing to pursue reforms at the UN Security Council with Ghana, Kishida also pledged during his trip to provide around US$500 million in financial support over the next three years to promote peace and stability on the African continent.

During a virtual conference in Tunis last year focused on Japanese investment in Africa’s development, Kishida had pledged US$30 billion over three years in an apparent effort to counter China’s rising influence on the continent.

Noting that African countries wanted to get assistance from every possible donor, Dujarric said “the more Japan is active there, the more it can show that China isn’t the only game in town”.

“But, in the end, these countries – Kenya, Mozambique, Ghana, and Egypt – are very very marginal to Japan’s security,” he said.

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China began investing in Africa in the 1970s, and over the past decade brought much of the continent under its Belt and Road Initiative. According to a London School of Economics and Political Science report published last year, Chinese entities made direct investments of US$43.39 billion in Africa as of 2020.

Shinichi Takeuchi, director of the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies’ African Studies Centre, said Kishida’s strongest motivation in visiting Africa was to lay the groundwork for the G7 by expressing its desire to take African interests seriously.

“While it is unrealistic to consider that this visit would change anything about great powers including China and Russia, it would send a message of solidarity towards some African countries,” he said.

In recent months, China has exerted further influence on the continent by increasing infrastructure projects such as railway lines; according to a recent report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, one in three major infrastructure projects in Africa is built by Chinese state-owned companies while one in five is financed by a Chinese institutional bank.

Russia has been exporting arms to African countries including Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. It recently stepped up its presence on the continent after mining projects were granted to the private paramilitary contractor Wagner, which has been accused of rights and humanitarian law violations in the Ukraine war.

Takeuchi said the four countries Kishida visited had relatively strong relationships with Japan.

“This means that Japan selected some familiar and manageable countries to show its posture towards the Global South to the world,” Takeuchi said, adding that Japan had very strong interest in Mozambique’s liquefied natural gas.

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In Mozambique, Kishida and President Filipe Nyusi agreed to support the early resumption of natural gas development in the East African country, which had earlier been interrupted due to its worsening security situation.

Satoru Nagao said the G7 needed to persuade Global South countries to side with them against China and Russia, but would face resistance given its history of colonial rule over the continent and perceived lack of interest in African concerns.

“With the exception of Japan, the G7 faces strong emotional resistance, so Japan must be the bridge between Western countries and the Global South,” said Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute.

Japan could also share its expertise with Global South countries by helping them boost local food production and use energy more efficiently, Nagao added.

Celine Pajon, head of Japan research at the Center for Asian Studies of the French Institute of International Relations in Paris, said Tokyo had taken pains to show understanding of the Global South’s concerns and longing for strategic autonomy.

“While it might not be sufficient to change the position of the countries that are the most dependent on China and Russia, it is nevertheless a positive move to build up Japan’s image as a reliable, trustful, and credible partner for the Global South,” Pajon added.

Apart from his visit to Africa, Kishida also met leaders from Bangladesh and Jordan in Tokyo last month, while Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi in recent weeks visited Latin America and the Solomon Islands.