John Kerry Tilts at Chinese Coal Plants

China said Monday that its economy nearly stalled to a 0.8% growth rate in the second quarter, but never fear, John Kerry is here. The U.S. climate envoy is in Beijing this week to tell Chinese officials that they need to follow America in putting their economy further at risk by moving away from fossil fuels at a rapid pace.

Mr. Kerry said last week that he’ll discuss cuts to methane emissions and coal, among other items. Somehow we doubt his Chinese counterparts will take Mr. Kerry’s advice, though they might do their diplomatic best to humor him. That’s how they’ve strung the world along on climate for years.

China signed the 2015 Paris climate accord, but that deal gave Beijing a pass to increase its emissions until 2030. And that’s exactly what it’s doing. According to the Climate Action Tracker, which monitors national progress under the Paris agreement, “China’s emissions under current policies remain sky high with no sign of substantial emission reductions before the 2030 peaking timeline.”

The Climate Action Tracker says that between 2015 and 2022 China’s greenhouse gas emissions increased nearly 12%, while U.S. emissions declined some 5%. China’s methane emissions rose about 3% from 2015 to 2021, the latest year with good data, while the U.S. cut them by 5%.

Mr. Kerry will have an uphill climb on Chinese coal in particular. The Climate Action Tracker says China’s “coal production reached record levels in 2022 for the second year running,” and “coal is set to remain the backbone” of China’s energy system. No kidding: Between 2020 and 2022, China added some 113 gigawatts of new coal-fired power plants, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The entire world managed to retire some 187 gigawatts of coal plants between 2017 and 2022.

As of January China had some 306 coal-fired power stations proposed, permitted or under construction, according to Global Energy Monitor, a nonprofit that tracks worldwide coal-fired power projects of 30 megawatts or more. When finished those plants would generate some 366 gigawatts, or about 68% of the world’s total coal capacity under development.

As of April China also had 180 new coal mines or mine expansions proposed, permitted or under construction, the nonprofit reported. These would produce some 657 million metric tonnes per year upon completion and could release as much as eight million tonnes of methane emissions a year.

Some of China’s coal plants serve as back-up capacity for renewable energy. But the energy think tank Embernoted in May that coal still accounted for 61% of China’s electricity generation last year. That’s down from 78% in 2000—but China’s “total power sector emissions were five times higher than in 2000 . . . due to rising coal generation to meet soaring power demand,” Ember reported.

All of this suggests the Communist Party won’t make climate concessions at the expense of economic growth, and you don’t have to take our word for it. In a January 2022 speech, President Xi Jinping

Carbon-neutrality goals “can’t be detached from reality,” Mr. Xi reiterated in March, according to a South China Morning Post article citing the state-run People’s Daily. “We can’t toss away what’s feeding us now while what will feed us next is still not in our pocket.”

The post-Covid economic boom that China expected isn’t happening. And data earlier this year revealed that one in five Chinese youth are jobless. Mr. Kerry can tilt at climate targets all he wants, but Beijing isn’t going to risk the political upheaval of mass unemployment to meet emissions targets while raging wildfires in North America offset any CO2 reductions.

The risk for U.S. interests is that the Biden Administration will make consequential concessions on technology export controls, arms to Taiwan or something else of strategic importance in exchange for climate promises Beijing has no intention of keeping.