New York Redistricting Case Could Help Sway Control of Congress

New York’s highest court is set to weigh in on a new set of congressional maps in the state, a ruling that analysts say could position Democrats to pick up as many as five U.S. House districts in the closely held chamber.

New York Republicans on Tuesday appealed the most recent ruling in a Democratic lawsuit that seeks to throw out district lines that were in place for last year’s elections and helped the GOP pick up a net three seats in the deep blue Empire State. Democrats said those maps, drawn under judicial supervision, were only meant to be in place for 2022. If the state’s high court—the New York State Court of Appeals—agrees, political analysts say it would make it harder for the GOP to keep its already narrow majority.

“The House nationally has become a game of inches,” said David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “So, every seat that can be won through redistricting is a critical seat for the majority.”

New York would help Democrats offset Republicans’ expected redistricting advantage in North Carolina and possibly Ohio. The effort in the Empire State is a priority for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat who denounced the map drawn by a special master last year in response to a GOP-backed lawsuit.

Court arguments in New York likely won’t be held before September, when the Court of Appeals is next scheduled to convene. Any new districts drawn by the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission or the legislature will also be subject to challenge, creating a level of uncertainty not seen since the 1960s, New York Law School professor Jeff Wice said.

“This is all unprecedented, he said.

A legal saga

The legal saga began when New York used a different process for this cycle of redistricting, which occurs once a decade after the publication of new federal census data. 

New York voters amended the State Constitution to create a new, bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission tasked with drawing lines for the state legislature and U.S. House of Representatives. The IRC was supposed to forward maps to state lawmakers for their consideration; lawmakers would be able to draw the lines themselves if they rejected two sets of IRC maps.

Lawmakers voted down one set of IRC maps, but the commission failed to produce a second set for legislators to consider. So Democrats who control New York’s state senate and assembly drew a set of House maps, which analysts said would have favored a delegation of 22 Democrats and four Republicans.

In response to a prior Republican lawsuit, the high court previously found that Democratic-drawn map violated a state constitutional prohibition against gerrymandering. In a 4-3 ruling, the court in April 2022 ordered a special master to draw a new map. Elections based on that map yielded 11 GOP House members from New York; Republicans in Washington have 222 seats, while Democrats have 212.

A group of Democratic plaintiffs sued over the new map in June of 2022, arguing that the process should start again because the IRC didn’t fulfill its duty of drafting two sets of maps. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul filed a brief supporting the effort, and House Democrats cheered a midlevel ruling this month that said the court-drawn maps were only meant to be in place for 2022.

The Democrats believe either an IRC drawn map or one drafted by state lawmakers would be more favorable to the party than the one implemented by the special master.

“We are eager for the Independent Redistricting Commission to resume their constitutional duty of creating new congressional maps so that New Yorkers can have the fair representation they deserve,” said Suzan DelBene (D., Wash.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The same Republican voters who sued in 2022 have intervened in the current case. They previously argued that the current maps should stay in place until the next Census is released. GOP lawyers filed a two-page notice of appeal of the midlevel ruling on Tuesday.

“I think the court has a stark choice: they can either do the political thing, or they can stand up for judicial independence and the Constitution,” said John Faso, a Republican former member of Congress who advised the GOP litigation.

The composition of the New York State Court of Appeals has changed since last year. Janet DiFiore resigned as chief judge, and Democrats rejected a moderate nominee to be chief judge in favor of Rowan Wilson. While DiFiore was viewed as more conservative, Wilson is considered by judicial observers to be more liberal.

National state of play

In North Carolina, the state Supreme Court has paved the way for the GOP-dominated state legislature to redraw the state’s House district boundaries. The result could shift as many as four of the 14 seats to Republicans, a significant change from the current alignment of seven Republicans and seven Democrats. Republicans may also have a chance to redraw district lines in Ohio, where as many as three seats could shift toward the GOP.

At the same time, Democrats could gain advantages in several other states. The U.S. Supreme Court last month ruled that Alabama’s House map violated the Voting Rights Act, an action that could force state lawmakers there, in Louisiana and potentially in Georgia to create an additional majority-Black or near-majority-Black district in each state, which would likely back Democratic candidates.

That outcome isn’t assured, however, and Republican lawmakers in Alabama recently approved a new map that adds Black voters to one district, but short of the number that Democrats say would give those voters sufficient power in elections. A federal court will decide whether the new map can stand.

In Utah, the state Supreme Court heard arguments this month on whether it has the authority to review the state’s House map, drawn by Republicans. One or more of the state’s four districts could become more competitive if lawmakers are forced to draw a new map.

Write to Jimmy Vielkind at [email protected] and Aaron Zitner at [email protected]