Poland Says ‘Nie’ to Another Nordic NATO Chief, Splitting Alliance

Resistance from Warsaw could ultimately cost Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen a shot at the job, since the NATO secretary-general must be selected by consensus of all 31 member states, European officials said. Poland’s concerns include a desire to install a leader from NATO’s eastern flank in the alliance’s top job and complaints that Denmark has fallen short of its defense spending commitments, European officials said. And after nearly 15 years of former Nordic prime ministers at the helm, Warsaw is wary of installing yet another Scandinavian in the alliance’s top job, European officials said.

The selection of a replacement for Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is front and center in talks among allies ahead of NATO’s annual summit in Lithuania’s capital Vilnius in July, which President Biden and his counterparts are expected to attend. Frederiksen, who visited the White House last week, is widely viewed as the preferred candidate of most NATO members to replace Stoltenberg, the former Norwegian prime minister.

Finland became the 31st member of NATO in a historic expansion of the alliance in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen explains what this accession means for the bloc and security in Europe. Photo: Thomas Trutschel/Zuma Press/Johanna Geron

But a growing number of states on NATO’s eastern flank are concerned that Frederiksen’s potential candidacy, while largely well-deserved, undermines the alliance’s needs in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the realization across Europe of those countries’ vulnerability, European and U.S. officials said. Other countries, including France and Lithuania, remain undecided about whom to back, but European officials said that Poland has already determined to protest Frederiksen’s candidacy. 

Poland, like other countries nearer to Russia, believes that the alliance would send a strong message to Moscow by installing a NATO secretary-general who hails from a country that once formed part of the Soviet Union. In that vein, several countries have floated Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as an alternative to Frederiksen. 

But several western nations are wary that naming a secretary-general from the eastern flank would be too provocative, as it brings the alliance’s leadership to Russia’s doorstep. 

In addition, Polish President Andrzej Duda’s government says Denmark hasn’t met defense spending targets expected of NATO members. Since Russia’s invasion last year, Copenhagen has acknowledged shortcomings in its ability to defend its territories and last year pledged to permanently boost its defense spending to 2% of its gross domestic product, a NATO benchmark.

In May, Denmark vowed to triple spending on defense to nearly $21.6 billion over the next decade, bringing it up to the 2% target by 2030. Four eastern flank members—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland—are among only a dozen NATO members including the U.S. to meet the benchmark. The issue reinforces mounting concern among eastern flank members that Europe is ill-equipped for a long-term military showdown with Russia.

In their White House meeting Tuesday, postponed a day after Biden had an emergency root canal, Stoltenberg reiterated his call for allies to commit to a minimum of 2% GDP.

Another issue: The Nordics have held the job for years. Stoltenberg became secretary-general in 2014 and his tenure was twice extended over a desire for continuity during tense relations with Russia. His predecessor, former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, had held the job since 2009. If Fredriksen is chosen for even one four-year term, NATO would have Scandinavians leading the alliance for almost two decades. 

The governments of Poland and Denmark didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, and the White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Stoltenberg’s term ends in October, and several European officials played down the early debate, saying there is still time to achieve the required consensus on his successor.

Speaking at the State Department, Stoltenberg emphasized the critical role of the alliance in limiting Russian gains on the battlefield in Ukraine.

“European allies are also doing their part with tens of billions of economic military support to Ukraine, and the support NATO allies and partners are delivering to Ukraine is making difference on the battlefield as we speak because the Ukrainians have launched the offensive,” he said.

The jockeying over the succession has been a back-burner issue for Washington. The U.S. government typically looks to Europe to take the lead in the decision, even though member states acknowledge the eventual candidate will need Washington’s blessing. The Biden administration would have been satisfied seeing Stoltenberg serve a fourth term, officials said. But Stoltenberg is eager to retire, NATO officials said. 

“We’re grateful for Secretary-General Stoltenberg’s leadership,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Monday. Following Frederiksen’s visit to Washington last week, Kirby said the president hadn’t yet settled on a candidate to replace Stoltenberg. 

Other names floated as alternatives to Frederiksen and Kallas include British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace

Write to Vivian Salama at [email protected]