Russia Aims to Restore Prestige in Race to Moon’s South Pole

Russia’s plans to launch its first lunar lander in nearly 50 years on Friday and become the first country to reach the south pole of the moon is a symbolic moment for a country anxious to prove it still has the technological capabilities befitting a great world power.

The difficulties are manifold, from executing a successful launch to actually landing a probe on the rugged terrain at the pole. Western sanctions stemming from its war in Ukraine mean Moscow has fewer collaborators than it might have had in the past. Russian scientists are also racing against a similar mission from India.

Aside from boosting Russian prestige, a first-ever landing at the pole could be a valuable step forward in expanding scientists’ understanding of whether there could be sufficient quantities of ice there to provide fuel, oxygen and drinking water to support a possible human settlement in the future.

The Luna-25 lander scheduled to launch from the Vostochny Cosmodrome, some 3,450 miles from Moscow in Russia’s far east at around 2 a.m. local time, marks the country’s first mission to the Moon since 1976 and comes as a new wave of countries expand their footprint in space.

India’s Chandrayaan-3, a spacecraft with an orbiter, lander and a rover, is also projected to land at the lunar south pole later this month. In May, China sent its first civilian astronaut into orbit as part of a new crew for its space station.

NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, plans a human spaceflight around the moon in late 2024 on a mission that would take people deep into space for the first time in decades and set the stage for a landing the agency would like to conduct with the American spacecraft manufacturer SpaceX in 2025. 

The stakes of the Luna-25 mission are especially high for Russia and President Vladimir Putin. The sanctions imposed since the war in Ukraine halted much of its collaboration with the U.S. and European nations, impeding several missions and driving Russia closer to China as Beijing expands its own ambitions for space. 

“We are now likely witnessing the final chapter of significant cooperation between the United States and the Russian Federation in space,” Benjamin L. Schmitt, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania Department of Physics and Astronomy, said in written comments.

“Sentiment in the scientific and astronaut communities has begun to shift toward the realization of a future in which NASA and Roscosmos are no longer close partners due to the horrific acts of the Putin regime in Ukraine and Russia’s hybrid threats against global democracies more broadly,” he said.

NASA and Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, have continued working together on crew launches to and operations of the International Space Station.

India and more than two dozen other countries have agreed to U.S.-backed principles for space exploration, while Russia is collaborating with China in the International Lunar Research Station that plans to man a base on the moon by 2036. Since 2011, China has been excluded by U.S. law from working with NASA.

Putin, mindful of the pride Russia takes in its Soviet-era history of space exploration, has insisted that Moscow will continue to develop its lunar program despite Western sanctions.

“We are guided by the aspirations of our ancestors to move forward, despite any difficulties and attempts from outside to hamper our advance,” he said during a visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome shortly after the invasion last year.

Roscosmos said the 1,764-pound, four-legged Luna-25 is expected to gather readings on the lunar surface for a year. According to Roscosmos, it is equipped with a 1.6-meter-long Lunar Robotic Arm, to remove and collect surface deposits, and several scientific instruments, including for the study of plasma and dust components of the lunar polar exosphere.

“The south pole is strategic because of its rich water-ice resources and long-term potential as a site for mining, industry, and settlement,” Namrata Goswami, an independent scholar on space policy, said in an email.

A successful mission would “demonstrate that Russian space effort remains a major capability for the country,” she added. “That’s the message Putin will have sent to the rest of the world. It is an important signal not only to the West but to China,” which the Kremlin has been courting to join future space missions.

A positive outcome is also important to Russia for allaying doubts about its military superiority over Ukraine after numerous battlefield setbacks exposed technical and strategic flaws, according to analysts who cover the role of the space industry in Russian politics.

In recent years, launch malfunctions, construction accidents, corruption scandals and a dearth of expertise have compounded what observers have described as a deepening crisis in Russia’s space industry. Western sanctions, among them technology export controls and restrictions aimed at degrading Russia’s aerospace and space sectors, have exacerbated the challenges to Russia’s space program.

“At a minimum, a successful Luna-25 mission could result in a chance for the Putin regime to engage in its usual propaganda aimed at playing down the effect of sanctions on its high-tech aerospace sector,” said Schmitt, a co-founder of Duke University’s Space Diplomacy Lab. “Conversely, a high-profile mission failure might suggest that technology export controls may indeed be having their intended impact.”

Pavel Luzin, a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, a public policy institution where his focus includes Russia’s space policy, said it would be impossible for Russia to develop its space capabilities “when it is self-isolated from other countries and people in the world because of its aggressive and criminal behavior.”

Russia’s Luna-25, Luna-26 and Luna-27 probes all depend on European electronics and equipment, Luzin said, adding that “even if Russia purchased all necessary things years before 2022, it would be hard for Roscosmos to use them without partnering ties.”

The mission to the moon’s south pole is exceptionally difficult. Russian space engineers have never carried out such a mission. Nor has the Vostochny Cosmodrome ever hosted a comparable launch. Local authorities have ordered nearby villagers to evacuate to avoid the risk of being struck by the rocket’s boosters when they separate from the main vehicle.

The craggy lunar terrain also complicates prospects for a successful landing. Since the end of the Cold War, India, Israel and Japan have all attempted and failed to successfully land on the lunar south pole, “showing how difficult this is even for advanced spacefaring nations,” Goswami said.

Roscosmos officials have acknowledged the dangers of the mission, with the agency’s head, Yuri Borisov, telling Putin in June that “such missions are always risky.” He estimated the probability of success at 70%.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told reporters Tuesday that the U.S. agency wished the Russians well in their Luna-25 mission, but poured cold water on any future Russian attempt to land cosmonauts on the moon soon.

“I think the space race is really between us and China,” he said.

Still, excitement in Russia has been building for days. Many people brim with pride over being the first nation to send a human into space. Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, who stunned Americans by circling the Earth in 1961, remains a national hero whose story is taught to Russian schoolchildren.

State media has published detailed dossiers of the lunar lander and television commentators have gone into overdrive extolling Russia’s competence in the space arena. The event is expected to receive wall-to-wall live coverage.

The risks if it goes wrong, are high, though.

Said Goswami, the space analyst: “It’s Russia’s game to lose.”

—Micah Maidenberg contributed to this article.

Write to Ann M. Simmons at [email protected]