Russian Attack on U.S. Drone Spurs Fears of Escalation Over Syria

While the world’s attention has been focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, new Russian attacks against U.S. drones have made Syria a fraught arena for military competition between Moscow and Washington.

The risk of confrontation was underscored Wednesday when a Russian jet fighter dropped flares that damaged the wing of a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone as it flew over northwest Syria, U.S. officials said.

Wednesday’s incident followed one on Sunday when another MQ-9 was damaged in what U.S. officials believe is a concerted Russian effort to pressure the U.S. military to pull back from Syria.

Both of the U.S. drones were able to return to base. 

Drones haven’t been the only aircraft Russian pilots have harassed in recent weeks. On July 16, a Russian fighter maneuvered so close to a U.S. turboprop aircraft that the American crew was put at risk when it had to fly through turbulent jet wash, according to a statement by Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the top U.S. Air Force general in the Middle East.

Following the Sunday episode, the Pentagon publicly complained that the Russian harassment of the U.S. drone was unprofessional and released a video that showed the tense encounter.  

The Americans’ hope that the Russians might hold back after the U.S. highlighted their Sunday action, which damaged the propeller of an MQ-9, was frustrated by the new confrontation Wednesday.

Nor were there any signs of Russian contrition in a similar episode in March when Russian fighters harassed an MQ-9 drone over the Black Sea, so damaging a propeller that the U.S. was forced to crash it into the waters below. In that case, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu presented awards to the two pilots involved, the ministry said. 

A Russian military official on Wednesday put the blame on the U.S., saying the American drone had made a “dangerous approach” toward a pair of Russian jets, prompting the aircraft to respond defensively by releasing the flares. “The U.S. continues to misinform the world community,” Rear Adm. Oleg Gurinov

Ret. Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, who from 2019 to 2022 headed U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, said Moscow’s strategy is to try to brush back U.S. forces from Syria at a time when the American military footprint in the Middle East is very modest.

“They want to make the game too rich for us to play, so that we will back out rather than stand by our position” in the region, McKenzie said. “The Russians tend to escalate to de-escalate.”

Moscow’s actions have led U.S. officials to consider how to respond, including through nonmilitary means, if the Russians manage to bring down an American drone. 

“It is certainly something we are paying more attention to,” one defense official said. 

The U.S. military said on Wednesday that a dozen advanced F-35 fighters have arrived in the Middle East with the mission of deterring Iranian attacks against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. But the U.S. military also noted in the statement that the planes can “fly in contested airspace across the theater if required,” a reference to the Americans’ ongoing mission to defeat Islamic State. 

There have been tense moments between the two militaries in Syria since Russian forces deployed in 2015 to back up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

The U.S. still has about 900 troops in Syria that are assisting a local partner, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, in combating the remnants of Islamic State. But those U.S. troops are operating in the east, far from the northwest enclave where suspected Islamic State and al Qaeda leaders have been operating. 

The U.S. has previously flown drones over northwest Syria, and for years, the two militaries have managed to avoid a direct clash through a deconfliction channel that linked Russian commanders in Syria with U.S. commanders in the region.  

In November, the Russians fired a surface-to-air missile at a drone over Syria that failed to down the aircraft. Earlier this month, Russian aircraft harassed U.S. MQ-9s for several days and flew an An-30 reconnaissance plane over a U.S. outpost in southeast Syria, according to U.S. military officials.

Several factors have led to increased tensions. First, the two forces are caught up in a clash of missions as the U.S. military has sought to pursue remnants of Islamic State, whose leaders hide in northwestern Syria, an area where the Russian aircraft have been active but far from the eastern portion of Syria, where U.S. forces have been working with a local ally. 

Another factor is that the balance of power in the region has changed now that the U.S. has shrunk its military footprint in the region. Gone are the days when the U.S. flew F-22s over Syria, leaving the U.S. with fewer warplanes to try to brush back Russian planes based in Syria. 

Yet another factor, U.S. officials say, is the increasingly aggressive posture of the Russian military in Syria. The Russian fighter that damaged a U.S. drone on Sunday was painted with the “Z” symbol, which Russian units have used in their invasion of Ukraine. 

“The Russians want to be intimidating and to disrupt the sense that the U.S. isn’t going to be challenged,” said Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The U.S. is trying to not take the bait while protecting its people on the ground and in the air.”

Write to Michael R. Gordon at [email protected] and Nancy A. Youssef at [email protected]