Russian instability is the norm under Putin
Yevgeny PrigozhinThe reported shooting down of a jet said to be carrying the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is yet another extraordinary turn of events in modern Russian history. It is also evidence of the state’s total dysfunction following Putin’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine. In what other European country outside of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence do major political or military leaders live in fear of such incidents? Yet in Russia, the extraordinary has almost become the expected.Today marks two months since Prigozhin announced that his forces would lead a “march for justice” against the Russian military leadership, pledging to “destroy everything that gets in the way”. Wagner forces left Ukraine, and brought the war home to Russia. More importantly, they brought it home to Vladimir Putin himself. It is natural therefore that suspicion will be directed at the Kremlin. While Putin had appeared to be in a forgiving mood, allowing Prigozhin to leave for exile in Belarus, he has
The reported shooting down of a jet said to be carrying the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is yet another extraordinary turn of events in modern Russian history. It is also evidence of the state’s total dysfunction following Putin’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine. In what other European country outside of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence do major political or military leaders live in fear of such incidents? Yet in Russia, the extraordinary has almost become the expected.
Today marks two months since Prigozhin announced that his forces would lead a “march for justice” against the Russian military leadership, pledging to “destroy everything that gets in the way”. Wagner forces left Ukraine, and brought the war home to Russia. More importantly, they brought it home to Vladimir Putin himself. It is natural therefore that suspicion will be directed at the Kremlin. While Putin had appeared to be in a forgiving mood, allowing Prigozhin to leave for exile in Belarus, he has previously said that the one thing he will not forgive is “betrayal”, and used exactly that word to refer to the abortive coup.
It is not yet clear, however, precisely what happened to this jet, who was on board, or how it came to crash, although the Russian federal air transport agency has reportedly said that Prigozhin’s name was on the passenger manifest.
In any case, this crash will not be the end of internal Russian military disputes. There remains a large number of trained and active Wagner fighters, battle-hardened by combat in Ukraine or pillaging in Africa, who are highly disaffected with the leadership of their country.
Indeed, some young Russians found Prigozhin’s message convincing, believing that Putin launched a war that has not been properly prosecuted. This will become a bigger problem the longer this “special military operation” drags on. There are also figures within the armed forces who are known to be dissatisfied with the conduct of the war, including General “Armageddon” Surovikin, believed to have been supportive of Prigozhin’s march, who has not been seen in public since June.
Whatever the end result of this turmoil, Russia’s chaotic domestic affairs must prove that the invasion of a sovereign European state was one of the greatest geostrategic errors of recent times.
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