The Shrinking U.S. Nuclear Umbrella

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen argues that “Korea Is A Model For Middle East Peace” (op-ed, Aug. 9), citing the U.S. commitment to defend South Korea, with nuclear weapons if necessary. His proposal would dissuade Saudi Arabia from acquiring its own nukes in favor of sheltering under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. There is reason to be skeptical it will work.

The Biden administration plans a vast reduction in the role of nukes in U.S. defense posture, reducing the need to even retain them. This explains our desultory nuclear modernization efforts to date. How many countries can shelter under a shrinking umbrella?

As the U.S. nuclear arsenal shrinks, quantitatively and qualitatively, relative to those of our adversaries its deterrent effect weakens. The belief that large numbers don’t matter in nuclear deterrence is false. We’ve avoided a third world war because of an acknowledged, powerful American nuclear posture. As U.S. nuclear power shrinks, other countries start believing that we won’t risk New York for Seoul or Riyadh. They’re correct.

This is why Britain and France strove to avoid war with Hitler in the 1930s. They had awakened to the fact that decades of military atrophy had weakened them relative to Germany. Even an assertive stance was thus deemed too provocative.

Mr. Cohen’s security proposal requires paradigm shifts in U.S. policy and years of funding increases, both of which are very unlikely. He needs to find another umbrella.

Peter Wolf

Sedona, Ariz.