The Turmoil in Northern Africa

Political instability and terrorism have long plagued the Sahel region of Africa, and the rolling coup attempt in Niger adds to the danger. The U.S. evacuated some personnel from its Embassy this week, and the fallout may spread to other continents.

Niger’s presidential guard last week detained democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, and guard leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani declared himself head of state. Mr. Bazoum hasn’t resigned, and a U.S. State Department spokesman on Monday described “an ongoing, fluid situation” where it is “not yet clear” whether the coup will succeed.

This turmoil threatens counterterrorism efforts in a region where al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates Boko Haram and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin are active. Last year the Sahel accounted for 43% of the world’s terrorism deaths, up from 1% in 2007, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace. The region saw more bloodshed than South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined in 2022, the think tank said.

Niger has played a constructive role in regional security. Some 1,100 U.S. troops and as many as some 1,500 French troops operate there. A $110 million U.S. drone base in Agadez is a key operational outpost for the region north of the Sahara, including Libya and Algeria. All that is now at risk.

Another risk is migration. With European support, Niger has cracked down on human smugglers and helped block the northward flow of sub-Saharan migrants. The attempted coup imperils that cooperation. Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya are struggling with unemployment, and a surge in working-age migrants from Niger and sub-Saharan Africa could become another threat to stability.

Five other countries in or bordering the Sahel have had coups since 2020, and if Niger succumbs this band would stretch from the Atlantic to the Red Sea. A provision of U.S. law known as Section 7008 triggers the termination of aid to countries where a military coup has overthrown a democratic government, though the Biden Administration has discretion over enforcement.

The European Union has suspended security cooperation and financial support, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that “our economic and security partnership with Niger—which is significant, hundreds of millions of dollars—depends on the continuation of the democratic governance and constitutional order that has been disrupted.” Yet the West will also have to consider whether withholding U.S. support would create a vacuum for Russia and China to fill.

Mali last year expelled French troops and has welcomed mercenaries from the Wagner Group. Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is now cheering the attempted takeover in Niger. Gen. Salifou Modi, a coup leader, visited Mali this week and met with its defense minister, who has been sanctioned by the U.S. over his ties to Wagner.

In the capital of Niamey on Sunday, thousands of coup supporters protested outside the French embassy calling for a French exit, and some waved Russian flags. China has been expanding investment and military infrastructure in Africa, and Niger is the world’s seventh largest producer of uranium.

On Sunday the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), a regional political and economic union, said that unless the coup plotters back down in one week it would take “all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger.” That could include force. On Tuesday the State Department said the U.S. supports “the efforts of ECOWAS and leaders in the region to resolve this situation, to restore the democratic president, the elected president of Niger.”

It’s far from clear that Ecowas can enforce its ultimatum, and a failure would damage the credibility of an important regional institution. Mali and Burkina Faso said Monday they would consider an Ecowas intervention in Niger to be a “declaration of war,” raising the risk of regional conflict.

We hope Mr. Bazoum survives this threat, but his control of Niger has been undermined. This is another bad development in Africa that will require more Western attention to avoid further human and strategic damage.