What Biden’s foreign policy speech means for Ukraine

Let's call a spade a spade. Biden said the right things about Ukraine, but it's not that simple.

U.S. President Joe Biden said that he would submit an urgent budget request to Congress for both Ukraine and Israel. In his speech, he also mentioned both Israel and Ukraine equally, saying that the victory of both countries is a guarantee of national security and the United States. Nevertheless, the whole issue of helping Ukraine is complex, in many ways obvious, and in many ways not so obvious.

Firstly, I mentioned this earlier, and, unfortunately, so far, the information is confirmed. For example, a joint aid package that provides military assistance to Israel and Ukraine is likely to be rejected by the House of Representatives at first. They are not yet ready to vote for this package. This does not mean this aid package will be put to rest, but the situation is somewhat complicated.

Second. The attitude of any state to any other state is always a process. It is a long, dynamic, ambiguous process. I would not say that the United States intends to turn away from Ukraine or to stop helping Ukraine. However, there are some grounds for saying that this assistance will be smaller and less systematic. This can be seen even in the leading Western media - the topic of the Ukrainian war has faded into the background. There are subjective reasons and objective ones. There were overheated expectations of the Ukrainian offensive, and now there is a particular disappointment. There is fatigue with Ukraine, and the military and technical capacities of those countries that are helping us are, to some extent, exhausted.

But there are other reasons as well.

Let's remember that if we compare Israel and Ukraine in terms of American national interests, Israel is certainly a priority. Ukraine is not. No matter how we feel about it, this is a fact. It is a fait accompli. Ukraine is a partner. Israel is an ally. If we look back and analyze Israel's relations with the United States, we will see a lot of different conflicts and scandals. A lot of different things have happened, are happening, and will happen between Israel and the United States. But Israel is their ally. Three factors measure this. First, their relationship has been tested over the years. Secondly, the Middle East is a zone of strategic American interests, and they have one and only one point of contact, one and only one ally there. And this ally is called Israel.

And the third point. Let's remember that the Israel lobby in the United States is a crucial factor in influencing politics, both domestic and international. Even though Ukraine also has a relatively large and powerful diaspora in the United States, I would not compare the influence and weight of the Israel lobby with the Ukraine lobby, as they are entirely different weight categories.

Therefore, given all these things, it is clear that for the United States, Israel, the planned ground operation in Gaza, the possible expansion of this conflict, and the possible participation of Hezbollah or, at the very least, Iran in one way or another, are a very complex chain of problems. For the Americans, these problems are much more critical. Therefore, I am sure that the assistance to us will continue, but it will be reduced, both for objective and subjective reasons.

What does this mean for Ukraine? It means that to keep this attention from becoming even more minor, those on whom it depends (primarily the president and diplomats) must make certain efforts daily to ensure that the assistance remains substantial enough. Unfortunately, there is no one to replace the United States when it comes to military aid to Ukraine.

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That's why Biden tried to push through this aid package, which would include aid for Israel and aid for Ukraine. It was a political move. But some Republicans (and, by the way, not only Trumpists, but also more moderate Republicans) said that this was a wrong move, that we should separate aid to Israel and aid to Ukraine, and they would oppose such a consolidated approach.

A significant number of Republican representatives in the House of Representatives (and they have a majority there) are against this approach, and they insist that such aid should be separated. That is why I hope that this situation can change. Today, they are not ready to vote for this package precisely because it combines aid to Ukraine and Israel. They are prepared to vote today for assistance to Israel, but they are not ready to vote for Ukraine. That is why this plan has yet to work so far.

There are other options. Assistance to Ukraine is provided through specific programs. In some of these programs, the president depends on the will of Congress; in others, he does not. There is a possibility to provide assistance through specialized grants – this option is also still available. But this is a complicated, lengthy process. That is why I return to what I said earlier: we need to convince.

First and foremost, we need to convince the moderate wing of the Republican Party so that this aid is not suspended. I'm not talking about stopping it, but it may be suspended. That is why we need to make some effort here. The fact that it is difficult is undeniable.

Many Americanists have also said that for the United States, Israel is an absolute democracy despite the war. That is why there is such trust in them, a willingness to come to the rescue at any time and under any circumstances. But in fact, there are many factors. First, the Israel lobby, as I have already mentioned. Second, this is a somewhat simplistic approach. It's beautiful rhetoric. Democracy is important, but if you look at the history of American relations with different countries, we can find cases when aid was provided to countries that were not very democratic, but it was provided. The United States was proceeding from its own national interests, and it has the right to do so. This is a very nice explanation. Under the auspices of this explanation, certain things are being imposed on us. So, it is more of a beautiful explanation than the actual state of affairs.

The reality is straightforward. Israel is an ally, and the Middle East is very complex, very dangerous, and extremely important to the United States. A large-scale war in the Middle East worries them and "interests" them much more than a large-scale war in Ukraine. Let's call a spade a spade.

Attempts to convince us to negotiate with Russia began last year in February. They have never stopped. They fade away; they flare up again. This is a regular political process. Will we succumb to this pressure? It depends on what kind of policy we choose for ourselves. I'm not a decision-maker, but I would. There is Zelensky's peace plan. I would not call it a peace plan. Not because it is bad but because it is not a peace plan in its essence. It contains mainly absolutely reasonable things. Reasonable, but, unfortunately, in today's realities, absolutely unrealizable. Does he need to move away from it? No. But each of these points can be developed; something can be added. When we keep talking about the same points and offer nothing in return, we succumb to pressure. From the point of view of the West, we have two options.

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Either win this war directly by military means. This is very difficult, and the summer campaign proved it ultimately. This is a war of attrition, a war of survival, a war of resources, of economies. And our economy, excuse me, cannot develop in a war. And our resources, ranging from mobilization to military, our reserves are not endless.

Therefore, we need to look for some ways to develop our plans and find new points of contact with our partners.

Whether or not we will be persuaded to engage in any negotiations will depend, first and foremost, on how the fighting develops. If we have some tangible successes, if we impose the initiative, as we have been doing so far, albeit with great difficulty, then there will be no active demands on this topic.

But it is clear that the country is exhausted. The army is exhausted. This is a very long process, so we need to trust in God and do everything in our power to ensure that we win this victory. It will be complex and lengthy.

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