What to Expect in the First Republican Debate

(Bloomberg) -- Republican presidential contenders will face off Wednesday night in their first debate of the primary season — minus frontrunner Donald Trump, who continues to lead his GOP rivals by a double-digit margin.

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The former president’s absence exposes his closest challenger, Ron DeSantis, to intensified attacks from lesser-known candidates eager to make their mark and stay in the race. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy will look to seize the spotlight to overtake the Florida governor, whose campaign is reeling after a series of missteps.

China, economic policy and the war in Ukraine are all expected to be key topics of discussion, along with abortion rights and immigration. Voters and political donors will be scrutinizing the candidates’ performances to see who deserves their support with the party’s first nominating contests set for January.

The two-hour debate in Milwaukee will air on Fox News at 9 p.m. Eastern time with Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum as hosts. Here’s what to expect:

Who will appear on stage

In addition to DeSantis, Scott and Ramaswamy, five other presidential aspirants will be on stage: former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.

Each of the debate participants met the Republican National Committee’s threshold of drawing at least 40,000 donors and 1% support in polls, and they have signed a pledge to back the eventual Republican nominee. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez didn’t meet the criteria and won’t participate.

Milwaukee is the site of the party’s nominating convention next year, and Wisconsin is among roughly a half-dozen states seen as crucial to winning the general election.

The elephant in the room

After toying for weeks about whether he’d participate, Trump announced Sunday that he will not attend. It is unclear if he plans to boycott all three planned debates, but he will be represented at the site by high-profile politicians offering Trump-friendly spin. The candidate himself sat down for an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that may run at the same time. The other candidates have sought to capitalize on the former president’s reluctance to be scrutinized in recent days, and it is likely he will loom over the discussion. How far they are willing to break from Trump could define the remainder of the primary.

DeSantis as the target

DeSantis, who trails Trump by 41 percentage points according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, has the most at stake. Before entering the race, the Florida governor was touted as the best chance for the GOP to move past Trump, but his campaign has suffered from dwindling cash, leadership shake ups and sliding poll numbers. In Trump’s absence, DeSantis expects to be the biggest target of his other rivals. The campaign has enlisted veteran debate coach Brett O’Donnell, who aided US Senator Mitt Romney and former President George W. Bush with debate prep, according to sources familiar with the matter.

China sanctions: Who is toughest?

Watch for hawkish rhetoric toward China, which has become a staple of Republican politics. Several of the candidates have called for revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations status. DeSantis has advocated going beyond that and banning the sale of US farmland to Chinese officials, imports of goods made with stolen intellectual property and encouraging the repatriation of US capital from China with tax incentives. Scott supports the “strategic” use of sanctions against China, barring the sale of oil from the nation’s emergency oil reserve to China and requiring apps like TikTok to be labeled “Made in China.”

Divisions on support for Ukraine

Support for Ukrainians fighting the Russian invasion has divided the candidates and could spark a clash. Several have expressed support for President Joe Biden’s policy but said he was too slow to provide help. DeSantis called it a territorial dispute but walked back the remark amid criticism. Ramaswamy has advocated giving occupied territories to Russia and ending sanctions. Recent polls show a majority of Republicans think Congress shouldn’t authorize more funding and that the US has done enough to help Ukraine, even as Americans more broadly are supportive.

Who is the best Trump alternative?

The candidates have largely been defending Trump, hoping to move his loyal base to their camps, but not providing much of a distinction. A forum without Trump gives them an opportunity to really set themselves apart and give GOP voters a reason to vote for someone other than Trump. Christie, however, has pulled no punches. He’s known for his debating prowess and his dislike of Trump. Also, Hutchinson will have his biggest opportunity yet to hone his criticism of the former president.

Corporate “wokism”

Watch for candidates to stake their positions against the policies of corporations that support LGBTQ rights and steps to combat racism. The Walt Disney Co., Target Corp. and Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV have all drawn criticism from conservatives on these matters. DeSantis, in particular, has focused his campaign around social issues.

Biden campaign reaction

Biden’s campaign plans to send fundraising emails off the event and will operate a war room out of Democratic National Committee Washington headquarters to issue responses, according to a party official. Staffers will have video clips of the candidates throughout their careers to push back against them.

--With assistance from Michelle Jamrisko, Akayla Gardner, Gregory Korte and Ryan Teague Beckwith.

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