Will Taylor Swift’s ‘Eras Tour’ Become the First $1 Billion Tour?

Taylor Swift’s epic “Eras Tour” is on track to become the biggest in concert history, with the potential to gross over $1 billion.

That milestone would break the record for global concert tours currently held by Elton John and could up the ante for an era of even higher ticket prices, show grosses and concert-industry revenues.

“What we’re seeing on this particular Taylor tour is almost like a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon,” said Jarred Arfa, executive vice president and head of global music at Independent Artist Group, who represents Billy Joel, Metallica and other acts. “It’s pretty astonishing.”

Over the past week, Swift announced dozens of new international dates that will take her to South America, Asia, Australia and Europe. Besides her original 52 U.S. dates, which end in August, she’ll be playing 54 shows overseas, bringing her to 106 gigs by the last show in London next summer. More dates could be added.

Music executives have been speculating for months about how much Swift’s tour has been making. Swift, in an unusual move for the industry, is not reporting her nightly grosses after the shows to Billboard Boxscore, which tracks such data, but instead planning to report them later, according to Dave Brooks, Billboard’s senior director of live music and touring. This has fueled questions about how much the pop superstar is making and how such towering grosses may reset expectations for other major artists.

Swift’s outsize success comes amid a booming market for arena and stadium shows from superstars like Beyoncé and Madonna. For blockbuster tours, per-show concert grosses “are higher than they’ve ever been,” Brooks said.

These performers are charging higher prices for general-admission tickets, aisle seats and VIP packages—partly to offset a large jump in their costs—even as some smaller shows in clubs and amphitheaters and music festivals struggle. 

Arena and stadium concertgoers, despite grumbling about prices, continue to cough up for shows. That’s boosting industry revenues, which increasingly are concentrated in concerts by the world’s biggest artists, Brooks said. In Swift’s case, the biggest concern isn’t prices—it’s getting tickets in the first place.

The Wall Street Journal analyzed Swift’s Eras Tour based on conversations with high-ranking concert executives, examining how much revenue Swift’s shows are generating in ticket sales versus how much money she’s actually taking home in profit.

Will the Eras Tour become the first to gross $1 billion in revenue?

The music industry keeps track of superstar concert tours via gross concert-ticket revenue figures that artists provide. It’s these figures that are used every year to rank successful tours. (Artists don’t include their costs, profits and deal making.)

Elton John currently holds the record for the highest-grossing global tour, with his ongoing “Farewell Yellow Brick Road Tour,” which has run from 2018 to 2023. So far, the tour, which ends in July, has raked in over $887 million. John surpassed prior record-holder Ed Sheeran’s “Divide Tour,” which ran between 2017 and 2019 and brought in $776 million.

Back in December, Billboard estimated that Swift’s 52-date U.S. leg would gross about $590 million; the average ticket price for the U.S. leg is $215, Billboard said.

Now that Swift is performing 106 shows worldwide, she could cross the record-breaking $1 billion line. But it’s not a done deal. Top tickets in the U.S. tend to cost 20% to 30% more than in the rest of the world, which makes the U.S. a more lucrative market than Europe or Asia. Swift’s 54 international shows aren’t worth as much as her American ones, though in some cases the venues overseas are larger in size, allowing for more concertgoers and revenue.

Asked how much the Eras Tour might end up grossing, Arfa, of Independent Artist Group, says Swift may very well reach $1 billion.

Others aren’t so sure, with some estimates putting her around $700 million to $900 million. That would still eclipse Swift’s previous “Reputation Stadium Tour” in 2018, which grossed about $345 million across 53 shows. Her average ticket price back then was $119, according to Pollstar.

A spokeswoman for Swift did not respond to requests for comment.

Executives generally expect Swift’s current tour to exceed Beyoncé’s, even if the pop-R&B superstar delivers eye-popping numbers of her own. That’s what happened the last time the two artists toured as solo artists: Back in 2016, Beyoncé’s “Formation World Tour” grossed $256 million.

So how much actual profit is Swift making?

Just because a tour grosses $1 billion doesn’t mean the artist is making $1 billion. It’s more complicated than that.

Superstars like Swift aren’t paid per show; they’re paid for the full tour. Still, it’s easier to get a picture of Swift’s earnings by thinking in terms of per-show grosses and profits.

For her U.S. shows, Swift set ticket prices ranging from roughly $50 for cheap seats to nearly $900 for VIP packages. Swift didn’t engage in “dynamic pricing,” which allows ticket prices to float upward (or downward) based on demand. Since her shows tend to sell out, the number of tickets sold each night depends on the size of the stadium. Such venues often host roughly 50,000 to 60,000 concertgoers, but can sometimes hit 80,000 or higher.

According to a person familiar with the matter, Swift grossed approximately $40 million via concert tickets over a recent weekend of shows. This $40 million figure would break down to more than $13 million per concert over three shows.

That generally tracks with concert executives’ estimates for Swift’s average per-show gross, which they put at $10 million, though shows could range from $6 million to $13 million or so.

But revenues are one thing, profits are another.

How much does the tour cost?

The expense of running the concert includes renting out stadiums, along with production, labor and transportation costs. The Eras Tour, in particular, is one of the most technically ambitious in recent history, with its various segments showcasing different albums of Swift’s career accompanied by unique backdrops and costumes. 

Other payouts go to Swift’s concert promoters around the world, including Messina Touring Group, which is affiliated with AEG Presents, the No. 2 concert promoter globally after Live Nation. Promoters often get a 10% cut, Billboard’s Brooks said. But Swift is an unusually big superstar, which means she may be more able to secure highly favorable deals, executives said. Also, unlike most stars, Swift is not working with a booking agency in the U.S.—just Messina Touring Group—which eliminates a major cost.

Some executives expect Swift is taking home 40% to 60% of the estimated $10 million average per-show gross, while others think this take-home figure is probably 50% or lower.

To boil it all down, let’s imagine what all of this looks like in practice: First, the hosting stadium takes a cut, lopping off $2 million to $3 million from the $10 million gross. From there, Swift pays her staging costs and the promoter’s cut, which together could remove 50% of the remaining $7 million to $8 million. That gives her about $3.5 million to $4 million in profit per night.

That figure, multiplied by roughly 100 shows, takes you to $350 million to $400 million in profit for the entire 2023-2024 tour. 

Accounting for various unknowns, a broader estimate would put Swift’s profits from selling tickets to the Eras Tour in the neighborhood of $300 million to $500 million.

What about her merchandise sales?

Concert executives said the Eras Tour is likely grossing another $2 million-plus a night through merchandise—all the $75 hoodies, $55 long-sleeve shirts and $45 short-sleeve shirts that fans are eating up. Fans, they say, are likely spending about $50 to $75 a person, after accounting for those who don’t buy anything. Even among the ranks of superstars, Swift’s merchandise is highly prized by her fans, known as Swifties, allowing her to gross more on everything from T-shirts to portable phone chargers. Some other superstars, especially non-veteran acts, might earn $25 a person or less.

During the weekend of shows where Swift grossed approximately $40 million via tickets, she also generated approximately $10 million via merch in total, according to the person familiar with the matter. That means about $3 million in merchandise revenue per night.

But Swift also has to pay a merchandise company. Of the $2 million-plus in average per-night merch revenue, Swift could be left with around 70%, after various payouts, concert executives said. That amounts to about $1.4 million in merchandise profit per night. If Swift’s merch sold like that over 100 shows, it would bring an additional $140 million on top of the $300 million to $500 million from tickets.

The upshot: Swift is looking at possibly over $500 million in profit across tickets and merchandise from the Eras Tour between the U.S. and overseas.

But there are even more income streams than that.

Even then, the Eras Tour doesn’t stop generating income.

There’s the cash from Swift’s partnership with the credit-card company Capital One, which is the U.S. presenting sponsor of the tour.

Swift’s alliance with Capital One, which goes back to 2019, is typical for superstars of her stature, for whom such deals typically involve hefty paydays. Swift, for her part, has appeared in Capital One commercials.

Last November, Capital One cardholders got early access to Swift’s tickets via a presale. At Swift’s shows on this tour, light-up wristbands were given away to fans; the bands were branded with Capital One’s logo.

Then there’s the merch on Swift’s website, which many fans likely bought before and after attending shows—especially if they wanted to avoid long lines at the venue.

Finally, there’s the tour-related income from increased interest in Swift’s music.

Swift is selling thousands of albums every week, often vinyl records and CDs. At the same time, she’s experiencing a spike in online streams as the Eras Tour rolls across the U.S. In the week ending June 15, Swift had six different albums in the top 25 of the Billboard 200 chart, according to Luminate, driven partly by the jump in streaming activity.

Executives said the tour has caused a Beatles-like mania. Some Swift fans who haven’t been able to get tickets have listened to shows from stadium parking lots. Others who got in have reported “post-concert amnesia,” where you’re so overjoyed you don’t remember a show afterward.

Such fans are likely among those helping fuel the streaming spike. That intensified listening, in turn, creates another waterfall of profits for Swift.

“She’s just capturing this moment of popularity so perfectly,” Arfa said. 

Write to Neil Shah at [email protected]