A Mysteriously Financed Group That Could Upend a Biden-Trump Rematch

WASHINGTON—A centrist group is laying the groundwork to run an alternative candidate if the 2024 presidential race becomes a Donald Trump – Joe Biden rematch. 

It is called No Labels, but many political strategists have their own label for it: spoiler. 

History and recent polling suggest a third-party candidate has little chance of winning and could tip the election to Trump, the Republican former president who No Labels itself says is too dangerous to return to the White House. A No Labels candidate could swing the race in critical states, or help ensure no candidate gets to 270 electoral votes, which would let the GOP-controlled House pick the winner.

Ben Chavis, a former NAACP executive director and a national co-chairman of No Labels, rejects the characterization of the nonprofit group as a spoiler. 

“Americans want more choices rather than a repeat of the 2020 presidential race,” Chavis said. Other co-chairmen include two Republican former governors and independent former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman.

No Labels—which by law doesn’t have to publicly name its donors—says it will evaluate its general election-chances after Super Tuesday primary voting in March. If it determines its “unity ticket” has an Electoral College path to victory, it will reveal its presidential and vice presidential picks at an April convention in Dallas. 

Rick Wilson a veteran of GOP campaigns who co-founded the anti-Trump group the Lincoln Project, said No Labels is operating from a “fictional playbook” that has its candidate picking up wins in states that are difficult to envision, including Florida and Pennsylvania.

“It is a spectacular combination of hubris and irresponsibility at a level that I have trouble even believing,” Wilson said. “They’ve made a financial and personal decision to destroy Joe Biden.” 

No Labels is waving off concerns and plowing ahead. 

The 13-year-old nonprofit group, which has a $70 million budget, has qualified for the ballot in Arizona, Alaska, Colorado, Oregon and Utah and is pursuing access elsewhere. Arizona Democrats are suing to kick No Labels off the ballot, and the group says it expects more lawsuits in other states where it wins access. 

The ballot drive in Maine has collided with a Democratic secretary of state who accused the group of leading voters to think they were merely signing a petition when they were actually signing up to join its party.  

The liberal group MoveOn recently sent letters to secretaries of state asking them to investigate whether No Labels is doing the same in their states. No Labels says it isn’t misleading anyone. 

Recent polls including by The Wall Street Journal make clear that a majority of voters don’t want to choose between President Biden and Trump. A majority of Americans disapprove of the job that Biden and Trump have done in office. 

Trump, 77 years old, is under federal indictment for allegedly mishandling classified documents after he lost his 2020 re-election bid and faces charges in New York over a hush-money case from his 2016 presidential campaign. He has a substantial lead over the many Republicans who have entered the party primary, though some GOP voters say they won’t back Trump next year under any circumstances.

Biden, 80, faces persistent doubts from voters—including many fellow Democrats—about his age and fitness for office.

No Labels says it was emboldened by a December survey it commissioned showing that 59% of voters would be open to supporting a moderate independent candidate. The group hasn’t polled any specific candidates.

No Labels won’t say what its candidate selection criteria would be—or who would do the selecting. It says it will lay out a process in August. 

Nor has the group taken positions on major issues that divide the two leading parties, such as abortion access. It claims bipartisanship and centrism as its main values and says a more specific agenda is forthcoming this month. 

Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), 75, who often has feuded with the Biden administration, says he might be open to a presidential bid. Manchin, who is also weighing whether to run a tough race for Senate re-election in 2024, has been a repeat guest on No Labels’ weekly calls with its donors. 

Third-party presidential candidates historically haven’t performed well. 

In 1992, Texas businessman Ross Perot, running as an independent, captured about 19% of the popular vote but failed to win any states in the Electoral College. Many Democrats and some political historians think Green Party candidate Ralph Nader cost Democrat Al Gore the 2000 presidential election, given the tight margin in outcome-deciding Florida.

No Labels officials say its campaign would be more similar to Perot’s than Nader’s, predicting its candidate would draw equally from Democratic and Republican voters. Biden might face additional headwinds from Cornel West, an academic and activist running for the Green Party nomination. 

A growing collection of political strategists and Democratic lawmakers pan No Labels as on a futile mission, possibly aiding Trump. Several dozen, including Biden advisers, met last month in Washington to plot ways to pressure the group to stand down. 

In May, some Democratic House members who belong to the “Problem Solvers” caucus that No Labels helped form in 2017 broke with the group over its presidential effort. 

A third-party candidate such as Manchin would erode more support from Biden than Trump, groups including MoveOn, the Lincoln Project and center-left think tank Third Way argue. Less clear is what would happen if the group picked a centrist Republican candidate instead of a centrist Democrat.

Former Democratic fundraiser Nancy Jacobson, 60, started No labels in 2010. She and her husband, Mark Penn, a 69-year-old marketing firm executive, have a rocky history with Democrats. Penn was a longtime strategist for Bill and Hillary Clinton until being ousted from her 2008 Democratic presidential bid.

Questions about the motives of No Labels are compounded by the secrecy surrounding its finances. 

The group’s leaders say naming their donors would subject them to scrutiny and intimidation. Past known donors include executives in the finance and energy industries whose campaign contributions largely lean Republican.

Harlan Crow, a Republican real-estate developer whose friendship with conservative Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas has come under scrutiny, has spoken at No Labels events and made contributions.

No Labels raised about $11.3 million in 2021 and $11.8 million in 2020, according to its most recent tax filings. 

A related No Labels political-action committee that raises money for candidates it views as centrist reported $223,000 in such contributions last year. As a PAC, it files donor information to the Federal Election Commission.

Roy Merritt, 80, a Republican who owns a boat-repair company in Florida, sent an $11,600 contribution to Manchin through No Labels last year; he said he liked the idea of the West Virginian running for president.

“He’s got good conservative values and withstands pressure from his own party,” said Merritt, who added that he backs Trump over Biden in a two-person matchup. “I’d vote for anybody who would keep the Biden liberal bunch out of office.”

Write to Julie Bykowicz at [email protected]