印度经济影响力日增促使美国示好

但仅凭年轻的劳动人口可能不足以维持经济快速增长【深度】

But a young population may not be enough to sustain rapid growth

印度总理莫迪在6月底访问美国。很少有出访者能像他一样，在华盛顿受到如此高规格的欢迎。美国总统拜登将在白宫为他举办正式宴会。国会参众两院的领导人也不甘示弱，邀请他第二次在两院联席会议上发表演讲——此前只有丘吉尔等人获此殊荣。用白宫新闻发布会上的溢美之词来说，此次访问将是对“美印之间深厚而密切的伙伴关系的确认”。

FEW VISITORS can expect the sort of welcome Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, will receive in Washington later this month. Joe Biden, America’s president, is throwing a formal banquet for him at the White House. The leaders of the two chambers of Congress, not to be outdone, have invited him to address a joint session for the second time—an honour previously accorded only to the likes of Winston Churchill. The visit will, in the words of a gushing White House press release, “affirm the deep and close partnership between the United States and India”.

事实上，印度和美国的伙伴关系从未这般深厚或密切。不过这样的关系却是美国的共和、民主两党的领导人所乐见的。他们视印度为与中国的竞争中不可或缺的帮手。毕竟，印度不久前刚成为世界上人口最多的国家。近来它的外交政策变得更强硬，对中国也更敌对，尽管它仍然反对由美国主导世界秩序。它的侨民人数为世界之最，且影响力非同一般。但印度的吸引力还在于，人们认为它可能终于要发挥自己的经济潜力了。如今它已是世界第五大经济体。莫迪承诺要实现足够的经济增长，让印度成为世界经济的支柱，与美国、中国或欧盟并驾齐驱。尽管他的政府在经济管理上有诸多失策，这并非一个不可实现的目标。

In fact, the partnership between India and America has never been that deep or close. But America’s leaders, both Republican and Democratic, would like it to be. They see India as an indispensable accomplice in their rivalry with China. After all, India recently became the world’s most populous country. Its foreign policy has become more assertive and more hostile to China of late, even if it remains opposed to the idea of an American-led order. Its diaspora is the world’s biggest, and remarkably influential. But India’s allure also rests on the sense that its economy may at last be starting to fulfil its potential. It is already the world’s fifth-biggest. Mr Modi has promised growth of a sort that would turn it into a pillar of the world economy, on a par with America, China or the European Union. Despite the many failings of his government’s economic management, it is not an implausible target.

莫迪的副手们认为，得益于年轻的劳动人口、强有力的产业政策，以及西方公司对中国的警惕心骤生所带来的机遇，印度经济将会蓬勃发展。许多商界大腕也认同这一点。苹果不久前刚在印度开设了第一家门店，其老板蒂姆·库克5月对投资者宣称：“印度市场生气勃勃，这种活力令人难以置信……印度正处于一个转折点。”几天后，富士康耗资五亿美元的工厂在印度破土动工。印度第一季度GDP同比增长6.1%。投资占GDP的比重达到了十多年来的最高水平。

India’s economy will boom, Mr Modi’s lieutenants argue, because of its young workforce, muscular industrial policy and the opportunities presented by Western firms’ sudden wariness of China. Many high-flying businessmen are persuaded. Tim Cook, Apple’s boss, who has just opened its first store in India, declared to investors in May, “The dynamism in the market, the vibrancy, are unbelievable…India is at a tipping point.” Days later Foxconn, a Taiwanese electronics firm, broke ground on a $500m factory. India’s GDP grew by 6.1% in the first quarter, year-on-year. Investment as a share of GDP is at its highest for over a decade.

但也不乏怀疑的声音。有人指出任人唯亲和保护主义阻碍经济发展，还有人吐槽不可靠的统计数据夸大了增长。印度在新冠疫情期间遭受重创，给穷人造成了持久的苦难。西方人将莫迪对民主规范的侵蚀和日益加剧的宗派主义视为经济增长的潜在威胁。而中国官员则认为印度还不够威权。今年3月，笔者就曾听到一位中国官员面对来自世界各地的老板们发言说，印度之所以没能打造出有吸引力的营商环境，是它的语言种类繁多、多级立法体制和工人受教育程度低造成的。

There is no shortage of sceptics. Some point to cronyism and protectionism, which hold the economy back; others complain that dodgy statistics exaggerate its growth. India was hit badly during the pandemic, causing enduring suffering among the poor. Westerners see Mr Modi’s erosion of democratic norms and growing sectarianism as potential threats to growth. Chinese officials, meanwhile, think India is not authoritarian enough. In March your correspondent heard one tell an audience of global bosses that India’s linguistic diversity, its layers of legislation and its poorly educated workers made it an unattractive place to do business.

但是，印度要成为世界经济的支柱，并不需要所有这些问题都能奇迹般得到改善。它只需要大致保持目前的增长速度。高盛预计印度的GDP将在2051年超过欧元区，在2075年超过美国（见图表1）。该预计假设印度未来五年的增长率为5.8%，在2030年代为4.6%，再往后则更低。

But for India to become a pillar of the world economy, no miraculous improvement on all these scores is required. It just needs to keep growing at roughly its present pace. Goldman Sachs projects India’s GDP will overtake the euro area’s in 2051 and America’s by 2075 (see chart 1). That assumes a growth rate of 5.8% for the next five years, 4.6% in the 2030s and lower beyond.

高盛的信心有一部分来自人口结构。中国和欧盟的劳动力因人口老龄化而在萎缩。而成员主要为富裕国家的经合组织（OECD）预测，印度的劳动力增长将持续到2040年代末。在高盛对未来五年印度经济年增速的预测中，不断壮大的劳动力贡献了足足一个百分点。然而，印度仍然会相对贫穷。即使到2075年，印度的人均产出也将比中国低45%，比美国低75%左右。

Goldman’s confidence rests partly on demography. The workforces of China and the EU are shrinking as their populations age. But according to projections from the OECD, a club mostly of rich countries, India’s will grow until the late 2040s. The swelling supply of labour accounts for a full percentage point in Goldman’s forecast of India’s annual economic growth over the next five years. India will, however, remain relatively poor. Even by 2075 its output per person will be 45% lower than China’s and about 75% below America’s.

1700年时，印度是世界上最大的经济体，甚至超过了中国。但在整个殖民时期，印度在全球产出中的份额不断下降，在一场金融危机后的1993年，其占比以市场汇率衡量跌到了有失颜面的低点——只有1%。不过自那以后，印度经济迅速增长，在2014年莫迪当选后仍然保持了这一势头。印度目前占全球GDP的3.6%，相当于2000年的中国。国际货币基金组织预测，到2028年，这一比例将达到4.2%，超过德国和日本。印度其他方面的影响力也在增加：它是仅次于美国、中国和日本的世界第四大股票市场。它的商品和服务年出口占GDP的比重接近历史最高水平。在过去十年里，它们增长了73%，印度占全球商品和服务出口的份额也因此从2012年的1.9%上升到2022年的2.4%。

In 1700 India’s economy was the world’s biggest, eclipsing even China. But its share of global output declined throughout the colonial era and in 1993, after a financial crisis, hit a humiliating low of 1% when measured using market exchange rates. Since then it has grown fast, a trend that has continued after Mr Modi’s election in 2014. India now accounts for 3.6% of global GDP, the same as China in 2000. By 2028, the IMF forecasts, it will hit 4.2%, overtaking both Germany and Japan. India’s heft is growing in other ways, as well: its stockmarket is the fourth-biggest after those of America, China and Japan. Its annual exports of goods and services relative to GDP are near record levels. They have grown by 73% over the past decade, and as a result India’s share of global exports has gone from 1.9% in 2012 to 2.4% in 2022.

在莫迪及其前几任领导人的治理下，印度的交通基础设施大为改善。与2010年代中期相比，这方面投资占GDP的比重增加了两倍多。自2014年以来，公路网络总里程增加了约25%，达到600万公里。机场数量翻了一番，其中许多新机场堪比发达国家最豪华的机场。数字基础设施也蓬勃发展，截至去年印度宽带用户达到8.32亿，从电子银行到福利支付的一系列由政府资助的数字服务覆盖了数亿人。能源基础设施也在扩建中：据彭博新能源财经（Bloomberg New Energy Finance）报道，印度在2023年的新增太阳能发电产能将为世界第三高，仅次于美国和中国。

Transport infrastructure has improved dramatically under Mr Modi and his recent predecessors. Investment in it has more than tripled as a share of GDP compared with the mid-2010s. The length of the road network has increased by about 25%, to 6m kilometres, since 2014. The number of airports has doubled—and many of the new ones rival the sleekest in the rich world. Digital infrastructure has also blossomed, with 832m broadband connections as of last year and a range of state-sponsored digital services, from e-banking to welfare payments, that reach hundreds of millions of people. There is a build-out of energy infrastructure, too: India will add more solar generating capacity in 2023 than anywhere else bar America and China, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

作为一个发展中经济体，印度对服务业的依赖程度异乎寻常地高：服务业出口额约占其出口总额的40%（见图表2）。这使得印度成为全球第七大服务业出口国——占全球服务业出口总额的4.5%，而十年前这一比例为3.2%。自新冠疫情爆发以来，印度的大型科技服务公司一直处于迅猛发展期，它们求贤若渴，打磨其行销全球的软件。印度还通过自己庞大的侨民与硅谷建立联系，这有助于它保持创新步伐，并支持新兴的创业文化。

India is unusually reliant on services for a developing economy: they account for about 40% of all exports (see chart 2). That makes India the world’s seventh-largest exporter of services, accounting for 4.5% of the global total, up from 3.2% a decade ago. Its big tech-services firms have been on a growth spurt since the pandemic began, hiring eagerly and honing their software, which is sold around the world. Links to Silicon Valley via India’s vast diaspora help maintain the pace of innovation and support a nascent startup culture.

问题在于，IT服务业虽然给印度带来了2000多亿美元的巨额出口收入，但它直接雇用的员工仅约500万人。实际上，在印度超九亿的劳动年龄人口中，只有约一半参与劳动力市场，而大约6000万人有正式工作。解决这个问题的一个方法是通过发展制造业来创造更多的蓝领岗位。而这也是印度三十年来的一个政策决策要点。

The catch is that the IT-services industry, while earning a huge $200bn-odd in export revenues, directly employs a mere 5m or so people. Indeed, out of a total of over 900m people of working age, only about half are in the labour force and perhaps 60m have formal jobs. One way to remedy this would be to create more blue-collar employment by fostering manufacturing. This has been a preoccupation of Indian policymaking for three decades.

莫迪提出“印度制造”的口号来推动制造业的发展，目的是抓住西方公司将供应链迁出中国以实现多元化的需求。印度的基础设施已经改善，它提供了一个相当大的国内市场，还拥有大量潜在劳动力。国际货币基金组织4月的一项研究报告指出，如果供应链因为地缘政治分歧而撕裂，印度将是为数不多的受益地区之一。为此，莫迪在2020年推出了一项330亿美元的补贴计划，采用“生产挂钩激励”（PLI）措施，在从制药到太阳能电池板生产的14个行业里，奖励销售额达到一定目标的企业。

Mr Modi’s manufacturing push, under the slogan “Make in India”, aims to seize on Western firms’ desire to diversify their supply chains away from China. India’s infrastructure has improved, it offers a sizeable domestic market and it is awash with potential workers. An IMF study in April concluded that it would be one of the few places to benefit if supply chains were split by a geopolitical divide. To that end, Mr Modi launched a $33bn subsidy scheme in 2020, using “production-linked incentives” (PLIs), which reward firms in 14 industries, from pharmaceuticals to solar panels, if their sales hit certain targets.

一些制造部门正在蓬勃发展：机械、电子产品、汽车及其零部件的出口在过去五年中增长了63%，如今占到印度所有商品出口的五分之一。据彭博报道，苹果7%的手机在印度组装。包括塔塔集团（Tata Group）在内的印度企业集团正在投资生产电子产品。然而，尽管PLI已经促成了大量投资公告，但迄今为止实际到位的资本可能不到100亿美元。一些报道称，一个在古吉拉特邦（Gujarat）投资190亿美元建设半导体工厂的大型项目已经陷入停滞。

Some manufacturing is booming: exports of machinery, electronics and vehicles or parts have risen by 63% in the past five years and are now a fifth of all goods exports. Apple assembles 7% of its handsets in India, according to Bloomberg. Indian conglomerates, including Tata Group, are investing in electronics. Nonetheless, although PLIs have prompted plenty of announcements, actual capital deployed so far is probably below $10bn. One big project, a $19bn semiconductor plant in Gujarat, has stalled, according to some reports.

去年最后一个季度，印度制造业同比只增长了4.5%，占GDP的17%，仅略高于过去十年的平均水平。自2019年以来，印度的商品出口增长（按价值计）约三分之一源于对俄罗斯石油购买的持续增加，其中一些石油在印度精炼后再出口到其他地方。越南争取到的从中国转移出来的制造活动要多于印度——印度在全球商品出口中的份额仅小幅上升，从2012年的1.6%上升到2022年的1.8%。总之，尽管印度制造业可能会继续稳步增长，但并没有迎来大爆发。

Manufacturing grew by only 4.5% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2022, and as a share of GDP, at 17%, is only a little above the average for the past decade. About a third of the increase in exports of goods by value since 2019 reflects India’s growing purchases of Russian oil, some of which is refined and re-exported. Vietnam has captured more activity displaced from China than India, whose share of global goods exports has risen only marginally, to 1.8% in 2022 from 1.6% in 2012. In short, there is no big bang in manufacturing in India, although steady growth may continue.

这种不同寻常的增长模式可持续吗？该模式的一些基本元素，包括充足的劳动力、强大的精英教育、创业文化以及与有影响力的海外侨民的有益联系等，看起来肯定会持续下去。莫迪有望在明年赢得第三个任期。这将在中央层面为经济决策提供连续性，尤其是在重金投入基础设施方面。与美国更密切的关系也有利于印度经济，毕竟美国是印度许多出口服务的买家。而由于银行系统相对封闭，印度将继续依赖西方的网络进行跨境支付。

Is this unusual pattern of growth sustainable? Elements of the formula seem sure to endure, including an abundant workforce, strong elite education, an entrepreneurial culture and valuable links to an influential diaspora. Mr Modi is expected to win a third term in office next year. That will provide continuity in economic policymaking at the central level, especially for the infrastructure splurge. Closer relations with America are also helpful for the economy. America, after all, is the buyer of many of India’s exports of services. And with a relatively closed banking system, India will continue to rely on Western networks for cross-border payments.

东方放贷人

East lenders

与此同时，过去金融不稳定的顽疾似乎不再有那么大的风险。银行系统已经得到整顿，企业债务水平低。与中国一样，印度拥有大量外汇储备。它还禁止外国投资进入其银行和政府债券市场，以降低资本外逃影响金融稳定的风险。今年1月，做空机构对一家背景深厚的企业集团阿达尼集团（Adani Group）的攻击暴露了印度资本市场的缺陷，比如不透明的公司治理等，但同时也显示出其资本市场具有一定的韧性：它们对这一事件不以为意。

Meanwhile financial instability, a plague in the past, seems less of a risk. The banking system has been cleaned up and corporate debt is low. Like China, India has large currency reserves. It also inhibits foreign investment in its banks and government-debt markets to diminish the risk of destabilising capital flight. An attack by short-sellers in January on Adani Group, a well-connected conglomerate, revealed flaws in India’s capital markets, such as opaque governance, but also a degree of resilience: they shrugged off the episode.

但有三个威胁确实笼罩印度经济。首先，IT服务业的繁荣可能后劲不足。印度公司拥有大量熟练劳动力储备，因此采用了劳动密集型模式。但包括人工智能在内的新科技可能会破坏这一战略。为做好准备，该行业开始谋求多元化发展，进军数据科学等新领域，通常是通过“全球能力中心”为外国公司提供服务。此外，印度也在扩展会计和咨询服务：上个季度，印度的非科技业服务约占其所有服务出口的五分之一。

But three threats do loom. First, the boom in IT services could run out of steam. India’s firms have access to a huge pool of skilled labour, and so have adopted a labour-intensive model. But new technology, including artificial intelligence, could undermine this strategy. In preparation, the industry is diversifying into new fields, such as data-science, often provided through “global capability centres” for foreign firms. And it is expanding in accounting and consulting: non-tech services made up about a fifth of all services exports in the last quarter.

第二个风险是，莫迪对国内领军企业的扶持和对法院等机构的侵蚀可能会开始吓退外国投资。许多中国科技公司被封杀。长期以来，跨国公司不得不小心应对印度变化多端的关税、法规和税收。现在它们越来越觉得有必要与印度本土大公司达成协议：欧洲水泥公司豪瑞（Holcim）将其印度分公司出售给了阿达尼；Meta投资了拥有大型数字部门的信实工业公司（Reliance Industries）。

The second risk is that Mr Modi’s promotion of domestic champions and erosion of institutions, including the courts, may begin to deter foreign investment. Many Chinese tech firms have been banned. Multinationals have long had to deal with India’s fluid tariffs, rules and taxes. Now they increasingly feel the need to strike deals with big domestic firms: Holcim, a European cement firm, sold its Indian arm to Adani; Meta invests in Reliance Industries, which has a large digital arm.

流入印度的外国直接投资总额从过去几年每月平均约70亿美元，放缓到今年2月和3月的50亿美元以下，对不公平的竞争环境的担忧或许是原因之一。其他迹象也显示出外国大投资者的踌躇不决。本刊调查了在印度最活跃的四家全球性银行在那里的风险敞口，它们通常为跨国公司提供服务。它们对印度的敞口（以美元计）在2022年平均下降了11%。

Fear of an uneven playing field may explain why gross inflows of foreign direct investment have slowed from a rough average of $7bn a month for the past few years to below $5bn in February and March. There are other signs of tentativeness from big foreign investors. We examined the exposure to India of the four global banks most active there, which often cater to multinationals. On average their exposure to India fell by 11% in 2022 in dollar terms.

但印度政府可能认为，从更长远看，印度庞大的市场足以吸引西方公司，无论游戏规则有多扭曲。西方公司在印度的子公司的销售额接近2500亿美元。根据本刊对央行数据的分析，过去五年，在印度的所有跨国公司的利润增长了80%，达到560亿美元。这足以抵消很多令人头痛的事情。

But India’s government probably reckons that in the longer term it is big enough to draw Western firms, however warped the rules of the game. Their subsidiaries there have sales of almost a quarter of a trillion dollars. Over the past five years the profits of all multinationals in India rose by 80% to $56bn, according to our analysis of central-bank data. That’s enough to compensate for a lot of headaches.

最后一个风险是，印度不露声色的“涓滴”经济学战略可能会引发民众反弹。它依靠的不是制造业工作，而是来自规模相对较小的正规行业的财富在整个经济中流动，以让更多往往受教育程度低下的人口受益。这种战略并不一定是空中楼阁：例如，给富人建造更多的住房带动了建筑业的快速发展，从而吸引了非技术型工人。强化涓滴经济学一直是莫迪的一项重要工作。政府已经强制要求众多小公司开始纳税，以推动它们合并、正规化和开展投资。印度的数字福利计划提高了向穷人提供援助的效率，并可用于更大规模的收入补贴。

The final risk is that India’s implicit strategy of “trickle-down” economics may cause a popular backlash. Instead of manufacturing jobs, it relies on wealth from the relatively small amount of formal industry to flow through the economy to benefit a bigger share of the population, who are often poorly educated. This is not necessarily pie in the sky: as more housing is built for the well-off, for example, the construction industry is growing fast, drawing in unskilled workers. And part of Mr Modi’s agenda has been to augment trickle-down economics. The government has forced hordes of tiny firms to start paying tax, giving them an incentive to merge, formalise and invest. India’s digital welfare schemes have made the provision of aid to the poor more efficient, and could be used to supplement incomes on a bigger scale.

年轻又躁动

Young and restless

尽管如此，行政管理和技术上的进步可能不会让那些受教育不足的人口成为更富生产力的工人。而如果印度庞大的未充分就业人口的抱负不能得到至少部分满足，印度的经济增长很可能就会受挫。即使大范围的社会动荡得以避免，也可能是因为政客们试图满足民众或转移他们的挫败感，实际上却于事无补。莫迪的经济现代化结合了非自由主义和宗教沙文主义。为平息无业者的怨愤，他和他的继任者可能还会变得更高压和宗派主义。公众舆论也可能转向反对经济开放。而印度正在亲近的那些西方国家看到这样的事态走向可能会望而却步。印度的经济崛起是真真切切的，也可能会持续下去，但并非没有陷阱。

Still, better administration and tech may not make ill-educated people more productive workers. And if the aspirations of India’s vast army of the underemployed are not at least partially satisfied, India’s growth is likely to suffer. Even if widespread social unrest is averted, it may be because politicians try to satisfy or deflect frustration in unhelpful ways. Mr Modi has combined economic modernisation with illiberalism and religious chauvinism. To placate the jobless, he and his successors may become even more repressive and sectarian. Public opinion could also turn against economic openness. And the Western countries which India is befriending could be put off by such developments. India’s economic rise is real, and probably durable, but not without its pitfalls. ■