Germany’s national security strategy ‘no surprise to China’ after Berlin echoes EU in warning of ‘systemic rivalry’

Germany’s first national security strategy, which labelled China a “systemic rival”, will not have been a surprise to Beijing, but it does have concerns about how it will be enforced, according to Chinese analysts.

The strategy, which mentioned China six times, also accused Beijing of seeking to reshape the current international order and using its economic might to achieve political goals.

The 75-page document, aims to address external threats ranging from climate change to supply chain disruptions, and describes the trading relationship with the country as the most important of its kind, but also describes China as “a partner, competitor and systemic rival”.

The language is similar to that already adopted by the European Union, which has already labelled China a “systemic rival”. At the time Beijing insisted it was not a threat to Europe.

The German strategy, commissioned after Russia invaded Ukraine, says that economic dependency in critical areas could “quickly evolve into significant security risks” and highlights the increasing priority placed on geopolitics over economic gain.

The document was released days ahead of a visit by Premier Li Qiang to Germany, his first overseas trip as premier, where he will take part in talks with German officials.

German firms’ hot take on China business belies Beijing’s charm offensive

Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said the release of the strategy “reflects a process of consensus-building within the German government”, which currently consists of a three-party coalition.

“I don’t think there are too many surprises,” he added.

“The strategy reflects the view that China and Germany’s is not simply a friend-enemy relationship,” Ding Chun, a professor with the Centre for European Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said. “Germany opposes decoupling and is looking to de-risk.”

Compared with the previous German government under Angela Merkel, who followed a pro-engagement policy, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has sought a tougher policy towards China as scepticism about the relationship grows in Germany and Europe.

However, the strategy also said China remains “a partner without whom many of the most pressing global challenges cannot be resolved”.

This rhetoric is less harsh than the Green Party had wanted, Ding said. “It is a compromise compared with a previous Green Party proposal to blame China, and reflects the current state of the German political mainstream’s perception of Sino-German relations and Sino-European relations,” Ding said.

As the most China-critical party, the Greens, co-led by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, have called for a foreign policy guided by human rights and values.

China ready for ties with Germany to hit new heights: Premier Li Qiang

“From a historical perspective, this document is taking a firm stance on the bilateral relationship, but it also represents compromise and a balanced position.”

But Ding said it is uncertain how Germany will respond. It will not establish a national security council to implement the strategy and the lack of a clear definition as to what constitutes a security threat, raises concerns about an overreaction.

“The real question is how to define decoupling and de-risking and how to enforce the policy,” he added.