The 2024 Election and the Unstable Future of the GOP

Editor’s note: In this Future View, students discuss the GOP candidates. Next we’ll ask: “With Sen. Mitch McConnell (81) freezing during a news conference and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (90) having to be reminded to say ‘aye’ during voting, has the time come for new blood? Should voters be turning against older candidates? Or is the experience and composure of older politicians necessary?” Students should click here to submit opinions of fewer than 250 words before Sept. 12. The best responses will be published that night.

The Fight for a New GOP

The first Republican debate provided a refreshing opportunity to hear candidates other than Donald Trump hash out the Republican Party’s most substantial policy debates. The GOP chose not to outline a platform in 2020, so the debate served as the first opportunity since 2016 for the party’s alternative standard bearers to engage in a productive conversation about the future of the national Republican agenda.

This election is a fascinating case study of the different strands of conservatism in the modern age. On one end of the ideological spectrum was the debate’s headline-maker, Vivek Ramaswamy, who offered unorthodox solutions to problems Republicans have long diagnosed yet failed to solve. From vowing to shut down the Education Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to reforming the Federal Reserve, Mr. Ramaswamy outlined a unique policy vision that might inform the GOP’s internal debates for years to come.

Meanwhile, Mike Pence sought to appeal to voters steeped in the three-legged stool brand of conservatism—social conservatism, fiscal conservatism and a hawkish foreign policy. This Reaganesque agenda, rooted in Mr. Pence’s Christian faith and deep respect for the Constitution, offered moderate Republicans a compelling alternative to the sometimes brash and combative style of Mr. Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis.

The rising star of the GOP, however, appeared to be Nikki Haley, who demonstrated her sound foreign-policy credentials and a realistic, clear-eyed domestic policy vision. Ms. Haley presented a form of compassionate conservatism that may appeal to independents yearning for greater civility in America’s political discourse.

—Mark Habelt, Arizona State University, political science

Vivek Is Trump’s Biggest Threat

By skipping the first Republican debate, Donald Trump gave his most dangerous opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy, an opportunity to shine. Despite polling in third place, Mr. Ramaswamy emerged as the focus of attacks during the debate and garnered significant media coverage afterward.

While it is still early in the race, Mr. Ramaswamy may be the only candidate capable of swaying Trump voters. Like Mr. Trump, he’s a vocal, brash and unapologetic businessman with staunch anti-establishment conservative positions. Unlike Mr. Trump, however, Mr. Ramaswamy possesses the advantages of youth and a clean legal record—characteristics that could work in his favor if he were to go head-to-head with the former president.

Should Mr. Ramaswamy emerge as a genuine threat to Mr. Trump’s political dominance, the Trump campaign may come to regret its decision not to debate. Mr. Ramaswamy’s anti-establishment appeal would have seemed contrived if leveled against the man that the mainstream media most despises. Standing next to Mr. Trump, Mr. Ramaswamy would have struggled to command the center stage while labeling Mr. Trump as the “best president of the 21st century.”

Unless Mr. Trump wishes to be cast aside like an outdated iPhone, he must act swiftly. Engaging with Mr. Ramaswamy now could be his last chance to maintain his influence and control over the Republican Party.

—Andrew Zhou, Harvard University, medicine

Trump Is the GOP

The Republican Party is still the party of Trump. Since the 2020 election, Donald Trump and his loyalists have consolidated control of the party by driving out those who disagree with him. In the 2022 elections, this meant supporting loyal candidates over competitive ones, costing the GOP offices including the Arizona governorship and a Georgia Senate seat. But the Aug. 23 debate showed why Mr. Trump followed that strategy and how thoroughly it succeeded.

During the Republican debate, the moderators asked for a show of hands from candidates who would support Mr. Trump’s nomination even if “he is convicted in a court of law.” All but two of the candidates raised their hands. When even Mr. Trump’s top rivals pledge to support him, it is hard to imagine how he could lose the nomination.

GOP primary candidates need to rethink their strategies, because the party will only lose more voters if they enable Mr. Trump’s wing. In my state of Ohio, that wing is the dominant force, and it might end up flipping the state blue. Our special election on Aug. 8 was characterized by a complete disregard for the democratic process and rhetoric that cared more about deceitfully stoking culture-war feuds than making honest, good policy. Both are hallmarks of Mr. Trump, and both made me realize I can’t support a Republican Party beholden to him.

Unless the former president’s challengers step up, the GOP will continue to drive away voters, dooming down-ballot candidates and re-electing Joe Biden.

—Evan Carlisle, Ohio University, mathematics

Nikki Haley for Fiscal Responsibility

The Republican debate on Aug. 23 offered a revealing glimpse into the party’s stance on fiscal responsibility. Nikki Haley’s pointed statement says it all: “Republicans asked for $7.4 billion in earmarks. Democrats asked for $2.8 billion. So you tell me who are the big spenders.” Spending issues aren’t confined to one party and we still need bipartisan accountability.

Given voters’ enduring concerns about price increases, candidates who prioritize fiscal restraint and offer concrete plans to address the national debt will likely capture attention. Staying on our current path means my children, grandchildren and possibly more generations will be paying for our profligacy. Ms. Haley’s statement reinforces the importance of scrutinizing spending on both sides of the aisle. Fiscal responsibility matters even if it’s your party.

—Alvin Pokel, Baylor University, supply chain management

Make the GOP Normal Again

With Donald Trump somehow still killing it in the polls, the GOP needs a unified opposition to wrest the base from his control. There’s no time to waste. The field must narrow immediately so Republicans can rally around a single candidate.

There really only are three options. Vivek Ramaswamy is arrogantly challenging each candidate while keeping Trumpers happy. Ron DeSantis is staying quiet and composed, weighing in only when necessary. Nikki Haley is showing the world her strength in foreign affairs.

Every other candidate feels unelectable. Mike Pence is bringing aggression and spirit, although it is wasted effort as he can never win. The rest of the field is simply inconsequential.

If the GOP is going to have a chance in 2024, it has to become more normal again. At the end of the day, only one person can beat Mr. Trump. The longer everyone else stays in the race, the harder they make it for that one opponent. If you have any doubts, get out now.

—Therese Joffre, Hope College, chemistry

Click here to submit a response to next week’s Future View.